The surging Orlando Magic ride into State Farm Arena on a five-game winning streak, looking to continue their impressive defensive form against a Hawks team that ranks second in the NBA in assists but struggles to contain opponents in the first half.
With star players like Paolo Banchero and Trae Young listed as questionable, bench production could determine the outcome after Orlando's reserves exploded for 46 points in their last victory - though Atlanta's Caris LeVert showed he can provide similar firepower with his recent 31-point outburst.
History favors the home team, as the Hawks have won eight straight against the Magic in Atlanta, but Orlando's league-leading defensive metrics make them a dangerous visitor against a Hawks squad that's finally finding some rhythm with three wins in their last four games.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic prediction: who will win?
For today's Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic matchup, our predictive model gives the Magic a 59.33% chance of defeating the Hawks.
Pre-game probabilities
Atlanta Hawks
Moneyline
Win %
40.67%
59.33%
Orlando Magic
Atlanta Hawks: 40.67% win probability
- Poor defensive record (9679 points allowed, 3rd worst in the East)
- Inconsistent recent form (WWLWL shows instability)
- Negative point differential (-105 points on the season)
Orlando Magic: 59.33% win probability
- Superior defensive efficiency (8540 points allowed, 2nd best in the East)
- Impressive winning streak (WWWWW in recent form)
- Better win percentage (41 wins compared to Hawks' 39 wins)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Atlanta Hawks | Orlando Magic | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic preview
The red-hot Orlando Magic ride into State Farm Arena this Sunday looking to cap off an impressive late-season surge that's seen them win nine of their last eleven games, including five straight victories after dismantling the Pacers 129-115 on Friday night.
Atlanta won't be a pushover though - they've found their rhythm with three wins in their last four outings, including a convincing 124-110 road win against the depleted 76ers where Trae Young dropped 36 points with 11 assists.
This matchup features some fascinating statistical contrasts: Orlando boasts the league's stingiest defense (allowing just 105.3 PPG) while Atlanta's high-octane offense ranks near the top in assists (29.6 per game, 2nd in NBA).
Keep an eye on Franz Wagner, who torched the Celtics with 23 points on efficient 52.9% shooting in Orlando's recent victory, while Atlanta's rookie Zaccharie Risacher exploded for 38 points on a blistering 15-of-20 shooting against Brooklyn.
The injury report looms large over this contest with potential game-time decisions for key players on both sides - Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are questionable for Orlando, while Atlanta's Trae Young and Caris LeVert might sit this one out.
History favors the home team, as the Hawks have dominated this matchup at State Farm Arena with eight consecutive victories over the Magic.
Both squads have plenty to play for in this regular season finale - Orlando (40-40) aims to finish above .500 while Atlanta (38-42) looks to build momentum heading into the offseason.
If recent bench production is any indicator, Orlando could have the edge with Trevelin Queen and Anthony Black combining for 46 points in their last outing, potentially making the difference in what should be a closely contested Southeast Division showdown.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic form
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic head to head
Atlanta Hawks
40%
Orlando Magic
60%
Apr 13, 2025
Atlanta Hawks
0 : 0
Orlando Magic
Apr 8, 2025
Orlando Magic
119 : 112
Atlanta Hawks
Feb 21, 2025
Atlanta Hawks
108 : 114
Orlando Magic
Feb 11, 2025
Orlando Magic
106 : 112
Atlanta Hawks
Feb 26, 2024
Atlanta Hawks
109 : 92
Orlando Magic
Jan 18, 2024
Atlanta Hawks
106 : 104
Orlando Magic
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