The Carolina Hurricanes welcome the Toronto Maple Leafs to Lenovo Center this Sunday in what promises to be a high-stakes clash between two playoff-caliber teams.
Toronto enters with impressive offensive firepower, having scored 254 goals this season (7th in the league) with a deadly 25.96% power play efficiency, while Carolina counters with tight defensive structure, allowing just 212 goals and boasting an 84.21% penalty kill rate.
All eyes will be on the goaltending battle as Anthony Stolarz likely minds the net for the Maple Leafs against Carolina Hurricanes' Pyotr Kochetkov when the home team faces off against the away team in Raleigh.
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Carolina Hurricanes vs Toronto Maple Leafs matchup, our predictive model gives the Hurricanes a 64.5% chance of defeating the Leafs.
Pre-game probabilities
Carolina Hurricanes
Moneyline
Win %
64.5%
35.5%
Toronto Maple Leafs
Carolina Hurricanes: 64.5% win probability
- Strong defensive system (3rd fewest goals against in the Eastern Conference with 218)
- Home ice advantage with a solid 47-win record this season (3rd in the East with 99 points)
- Consistent performance throughout the season (3rd position in Eastern Conference standings)
Toronto Maple Leafs: 35.5% win probability
- Recent road performance issues (WWLWW form suggests inconsistency)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (227 goals against, middle of the pack in Eastern Conference)
- Statistical disadvantage when playing top-3 positioned teams (facing the 3rd-ranked Hurricanes while Toronto sits at 2nd)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Carolina Hurricanes | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Carolina Hurricanes vs. Toronto Maple Leafs preview
The Carolina Hurricanes host the Toronto Maple Leafs this Sunday at PNC Arena in what promises to be a high-octane clash between two playoff-caliber teams.
Toronto comes in riding some momentum after a 4-3 victory over the Lightning, where their power play clicked once again—they've been deadly efficient with a 25.96% conversion rate this season.
Carolina's home-ice advantage could prove crucial as they've been outshooting opponents consistently, ranking 3rd in the league with 2,483 shots while maintaining a solid 10.11% shooting percentage.
The goaltending battle might steal the spotlight with Toronto's Anthony Stolarz (.916 career save percentage) likely squaring off against Carolina's Pyotr Kochetkov, who's compiled an impressive 64-35-12 career record.
Both squads have been offensive forces this season—the Leafs have netted 254 goals (7th in the NHL) while the Hurricanes have tallied 251, making the over/under of 6 goals an interesting proposition.
Toronto's even-strength performance (200 goals scored vs. 175 conceded) gives them a slight edge in 5-on-5 play, but Carolina's stellar 84.21% penalty kill could neutralize the Leafs' power play threat.
The Hurricanes' most recent 4-4 tie against the Capitals showed both their offensive capability and some defensive vulnerabilities that Toronto might look to exploit.
This matchup features two teams with nearly identical points percentages (.641 for Toronto, .622 for Carolina), setting the stage for what should be a nail-biter worthy of playoff-level intensity.
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Toronto Maple Leafs form
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Toronto Maple Leafs head to head
Carolina Hurricanes
83%
Toronto Maple Leafs
17%
Feb 23, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
6 : 3
Carolina Hurricanes
Jan 10, 2025
Carolina Hurricanes
6 : 3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Mar 24, 2024
Carolina Hurricanes
2 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Mar 16, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
4 : 5
Carolina Hurricanes
Dec 31, 2023
Toronto Maple Leafs
2 : 3
Carolina Hurricanes
Mar 25, 2023
Carolina Hurricanes
5 : 3
Toronto Maple Leafs
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