The Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers are set to clash in what could be a preview of their likely first-round playoff matchup, with both Sunshine State rivals looking to gain psychological advantage heading into the postseason.
Tampa Bay enters on a high note after downing Buffalo 7-4, powered by Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov each netting two goals, while Florida looks to bounce back after seeing their three-game win streak snapped in a 5-3 loss to the Rangers.
With the Panthers holding a 7-3 edge in their last 10 meetings, including a 2-1 win in their most recent March showdown, this Atlantic Division tilt carries significant playoff implications as both teams fine-tune their strategies.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 75% chance of defeating the Panthers.
Pre-game probabilities
Tampa Bay Lightning
Moneyline
Win %
75%
25%
Florida Panthers
Tampa Bay Lightning: 75% win probability
- Superior offensive firepower (289 goals scored, 3rd highest in the league)
- Strong recent form (3-2-0 in last five games compared to Florida's 1-3-1)
- Home ice advantage with 46 wins on the season (among the league's elite with 100 points)
Florida Panthers: 25% win probability
- Struggling with consistency (LWWWL in recent form)
- Weaker defensive record (218 goals against compared to Tampa's 214)
- Road game disadvantage against a superior conference rival (Florida sits 5th in Eastern Conference with 98 points, below Tampa's 100)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Florida Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers preview
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers renew their fierce Sunshine State rivalry in what could double as a first-round playoff preview when they clash Tuesday night at Amalie Arena.
Tampa enters on a high after hammering Buffalo 7-4 on Sunday behind Jake Guentzel's 40th goal and another multi-goal performance from Nikita Kucherov, showing why they boast the league's most potent offense at 3.59 goals per game.
Florida, meanwhile, comes limping into the matchup on the second night of a back-to-back after seeing their three-game win streak snapped in a 5-3 collapse against the Rangers where they surrendered a 3-1 lead.
The Panthers' offensive struggles continue to be concerning—they've averaged just 2.2 goals over their last ten games despite Sam Reinhart's impressive 39-goal campaign.
With Tampa Bay still harboring slim hopes of capturing the Atlantic Division crown and Florida potentially eyeing home-ice advantage for the playoffs, expect tactical caution but underlying intensity as these rivals take measure of each other.
Andrei Vasilevskiy likely gets the nod for the Lightning against Vitek Vanecek for the Panthers in what figures to be a critical goaltending battle between two teams destined to see plenty more of each other soon.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers form
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers head to head
Tampa Bay Lightning
50%
Florida Panthers
50%
Mar 4, 2025
Florida Panthers
2 : 1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Dec 24, 2024
Florida Panthers
0 : 4
Tampa Bay Lightning
Dec 22, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 4
Florida Panthers
Oct 2, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
1 : 2
Florida Panthers
Sep 30, 2024
Florida Panthers
1 : 3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Sep 25, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
8 : 7
Florida Panthers
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