The Orlando Magic host the Atlanta Hawks in a crucial Eastern Conference play-in game at Kia Center, with oddsmakers favoring Orlando by 5.5 points despite the teams splitting their regular season series 2-2.
Both squads enter with momentum – Atlanta winning four of their final five games and Orlando securing nine victories in their last twelve – setting up what promises to be another closely contested battle after their recent 117-105 Hawks victory to close the regular season.
With key players sidelined on both sides, including Larry Nance Jr. and Clint Capela for Atlanta and Jalen Suggs for Orlando, this matchup will likely come down to whether Trae Young can overcome the Magic's top-ranked defense or if Paolo Banchero can capitalize on home-court advantage.
Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Orlando Magic vs Atlanta Hawks matchup, our predictive model gives the Hawks a 58.33% chance of defeating the Magic.
Pre-game probabilities
Atlanta Hawks
Moneyline
Win %
58.33%
41.67%
Orlando Magic
Atlanta Hawks: 58.33% win probability
- Superior offensive output (9691 points scored vs Magic's 8645)
- Better win-loss record (40-42 compared to Magic's 41-41)
- Excellent recent form (WWWLW shows momentum with 4 wins in last 5 games)
Orlando Magic: 41.67% win probability
- League-low offensive production (8645 points is lowest among playoff teams)
- Inconsistent scoring (ranked 27th in points scored despite playoff position)
- Road disadvantage (despite home court, Magic's point differential of -10 is concerning)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Orlando Magic | Atlanta Hawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks preview
The Magic and Hawks split their four-meeting regular season series, with their final matchup just days ago resulting in a 117-105 Atlanta victory despite Trae Young's absence.
Orlando comes in with momentum after winning nine of their final twelve games to secure home-court advantage for this play-in clash, while Atlanta closed strong by winning four of their last five.
Paolo Banchero has been the engine for Orlando when healthy, averaging nearly 26 points per game, though both teams have weathered significant injury storms throughout the season.
The Magic boast the NBA's stingiest defense, surrendering just 105.5 points per contest, which could prove decisive against Atlanta's high-octane offense that ranks fifth in scoring at 118.2 points per game.
Despite being 5.5-point home favorites, Orlando should expect another tight contest, as three of the four regular-season meetings between these Southeast Division rivals were decided by single digits.
Both teams remain shorthanded, with the Hawks missing Larry Nance Jr., Clint Capela, and Jalen Johnson, while the Magic continue without Moritz Wagner and Jalen Suggs for this crucial play-in showdown.
Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks form
Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks head to head
Orlando Magic
60%
Atlanta Hawks
40%
Apr 15, 2025
Orlando Magic
0 : 0
Atlanta Hawks
Apr 13, 2025
Atlanta Hawks
117 : 105
Orlando Magic
Apr 8, 2025
Orlando Magic
119 : 112
Atlanta Hawks
Feb 21, 2025
Atlanta Hawks
108 : 114
Orlando Magic
Feb 11, 2025
Orlando Magic
106 : 112
Atlanta Hawks
Feb 26, 2024
Atlanta Hawks
109 : 92
Orlando Magic
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