The Sacramento Kings (40-42) will host the Dallas Mavericks (39-43) at Golden 1 Center in a crucial Western Conference Play-In game where the Kings enter as 7-point favorites despite both teams finishing below .500 this season.
After Dallas collapsed in their last outing against Memphis, shooting just 43.7% from the field and an abysmal 5-for-28 from three-point range, they'll need to find offensive rhythm against a Kings team that just demonstrated their firepower in a convincing win over Phoenix.
Sacramento's Jonas Valanciunas could be the X-factor after his dominant 22-point, 10-rebound performance on 90.9% shooting in their last game, presenting a matchup problem for a Mavericks squad that was recently outrebounded 53-38 by the Grizzlies.
Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks matchup, our predictive model gives the Kings a 73% chance of defeating the Mavs.
Pre-game probabilities
Sacramento Kings
Moneyline
Win %
73%
27%
Dallas Mavericks
Sacramento Kings: 73% win probability
- Superior offensive production (Kings score 9490 points vs Mavs' 9364)
- Better recent form (WLLWW vs Mavs' LWLLL)
- Home court advantage with better point differential (-39 vs Mavs' -98)
Dallas Mavericks: 27% win probability
- Poor road performance (reflected in their recent form LWLLL)
- Defensive struggles (allowed 9462 points, ranking in bottom half of conference)
- Momentum issues (lost 3 of their last 5 games)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Sacramento Kings | Dallas Mavericks | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks preview
The Play-In pressure mounts at Golden 1 Center as the Sacramento Kings host the Dallas Mavericks in a crucial Western Conference elimination game on Wednesday night.
The Kings enter as 7-point favorites after finishing slightly ahead in the standings with a 40-42 record compared to Dallas at 39-43.
Sacramento carries momentum from their impressive 109-98 victory over Phoenix, where Jonas Valanciunas dominated with an efficient 22-point, 10-rebound performance on 90.9% shooting.
Dallas limps into this matchup following a disastrous 132-97 blowout loss to Memphis, though Daniel Gafford provided a rare bright spot with 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting.
Both teams have struggled defensively this season—ranking 19th and 20th respectively in points allowed—setting the stage for what could be an offensive showcase with the total set at 229.
With Sacramento's superior shooting efficiency and home-court advantage, the Mavericks will need to drastically improve their three-point shooting (just 5-for-28 in their last outing) to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks form
Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks head to head
Sacramento Kings
67%
Dallas Mavericks
33%
Mar 4, 2025
Dallas Mavericks
98 : 122
Sacramento Kings
Feb 11, 2025
Dallas Mavericks
128 : 129
Sacramento Kings
Dec 31, 2024
Sacramento Kings
110 : 100
Dallas Mavericks
Mar 30, 2024
Sacramento Kings
103 : 107
Dallas Mavericks
Mar 27, 2024
Sacramento Kings
96 : 132
Dallas Mavericks
Jan 28, 2024
Dallas Mavericks
115 : 120
Sacramento Kings
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