The Washington Capitals (51-21-9) head to PPG Paints Arena to face the Pittsburgh Penguins (33-36-12) in a matchup featuring two teams on completely different trajectories this season.
While the Capitals have secured the Eastern Conference's best record behind Alexander Ovechkin and Dylan Strome's offensive firepower, the struggling Penguins will miss the playoffs for the third consecutive season despite Sidney Crosby's continued production.
With Washington's high-powered offense (3.59 goals per game) facing Pittsburgh's vulnerable defense (3.56 goals allowed per game), oddsmakers have installed the road team as slight favorites in what could be a high-scoring Metropolitan Division showdown.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Pittsburgh Penguins vs Washington Capitals matchup, our predictive model gives the Caps a 75% chance of defeating the Pens.
Pre-game probabilities
Pittsburgh Penguins
Moneyline
Win %
25%
75%
Washington Capitals
Pittsburgh Penguins: 25% win probability
- Poor defensive record (291 goals against, 3rd worst in Eastern Conference)
- Inconsistent recent play (LWWLW form shows inability to string together consecutive wins)
- Significant standings gap (13th in Eastern Conference with only 78 points compared to Washington's 111)
Washington Capitals: 75% win probability
- League-leading record (51 wins in 81 games, best in Eastern Conference)
- Elite offensive firepower (286 goals scored, 2nd most in Eastern Conference)
- Excellent recent form (Won 3 of last 5 games, including their most recent matchup)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
| Pittsburgh Penguins | Washington Capitals | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals preview
The Washington Capitals bring their Eastern Conference-best 51-21-9 record to Pittsburgh's PPG Paints Arena on Thursday night for another chapter in this storied rivalry, though the stakes couldn't be more different for these two clubs heading into the postseason.
While the Caps have been riding their potent offense (3.59 goals per game) to the top of the standings behind Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin's combined 72 goals, the Penguins are staring at a third consecutive playoff absence with their defensive woes largely to blame.
Sidney Crosby remains Pittsburgh's bright spot in a disappointing campaign, but the Penguins' defensive unit has struggled mightily, surrendering 3.56 goals per game despite Kris Letang's efforts.
Charlie Lindgren will need to improve on his .894 save percentage if Washington harbors deep playoff ambitions, though their balanced attack and solid blueline corps led by John Carlson and Jakob Chychrun have covered most deficiencies.
Recent form favors the visitors, with Washington coming off a confident 3-1 win against the Islanders while Pittsburgh's latest outing resulted in a deflating 4-1 defeat to Boston.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals form
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals head to head
Pittsburgh Penguins
33%
Washington Capitals
67%
Feb 22, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins
3 : 8
Washington Capitals
Jan 19, 2025
Washington Capitals
4 : 1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Nov 9, 2024
Washington Capitals
2 : 4
Pittsburgh Penguins
Apr 4, 2024
Washington Capitals
1 : 4
Pittsburgh Penguins
Mar 8, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins
0 : 6
Washington Capitals
Jan 3, 2024
Pittsburgh Penguins
3 : 4
Washington Capitals
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