The Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat clash in a pivotal Eastern Conference Play-In game Friday night at State Farm Arena, with both teams fighting for the coveted eighth seed after showing vastly different forms in their previous contests.
Tyler Herro enters this matchup with tremendous momentum after scoring 38 points in Miami's dominant win over Chicago, while Trae Young looks to bounce back from a frustrating performance that ended with an ejection against Orlando.
With the regular season series tied at 2-2 and each previous meeting decided by double digits, this win-or-go-home showdown promises high stakes basketball as oddsmakers have installed this as a virtual pick'em with the Hawks favored by just a single point.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat matchup, our predictive model gives the Heat a 55% chance of defeating the Hawks.
Pre-game probabilities
Atlanta Hawks
Moneyline
Win %
45%
55%
Miami Heat
Atlanta Hawks: 45% win probability
- Poor defensive performance (2nd worst in Eastern Conference playoff teams with 9784 points allowed)
- Inconsistent defensive rotations (allowed 124 more points than they scored despite making playoffs)
- Vulnerable to disciplined offenses (Miami's methodical approach can exploit Atlanta's defensive gaps despite Hawks' higher scoring output)
Miami Heat: 55% win probability
- Superior defensive efficiency (Miami allowed 9023 points compared to Atlanta's 9784)
- Strong lineup discipline (Miami has better points differential despite scoring fewer points)
- Balanced game management (Miami's 37-45 record showed more consistency against tougher opponents than Atlanta's 40-42)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Atlanta Hawks | Miami Heat | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat preview
The Heat and Hawks clash in a pivotal Eastern Conference Play-In battle Friday night, with Miami riding high after dismantling Chicago 109-90 behind Tyler Herro's explosive 38-point performance.
Atlanta limps home following a disappointing 120-95 blowout loss to Orlando where they shot a dismal 4-of-21 from beyond the arc, putting pressure on Trae Young to deliver a bounce-back showing.
Miami's road warriors have covered the spread in five of their last six away games, while Atlanta's home form has been concerning, dropping 10 of their last 11 at State Farm Arena following road defeats.
Both teams enter with significant injury concerns – the Hawks missing Clint Capela, Larry Nance Jr., and Jalen Johnson, while Kevin Love, Pelle Larsson, and Nikola Jovic remain questionable for Miami.
The season series sits deadlocked at 2-2 with each contest decided by double-digits, setting the stage for what promises to be an intriguing tactical battle between Young's elite playmaking (second in the NBA with 29.6 assists per game) and Miami's stingy defense (seventh in points allowed).
Head coach Erik Spoelstra's trademark playoff intensity was on full display Wednesday as Miami held Chicago to just 27% shooting from deep, a defensive formula they'll look to replicate against an Atlanta team that struggles when unable to connect from distance.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat form
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat head to head
Atlanta Hawks
40%
Miami Heat
60%
Apr 18, 2025
Atlanta Hawks
0 : 0
Miami Heat
Mar 27, 2025
Miami Heat
122 : 112
Atlanta Hawks
Feb 27, 2025
Miami Heat
131 : 109
Atlanta Hawks
Feb 25, 2025
Atlanta Hawks
98 : 86
Miami Heat
Dec 28, 2024
Atlanta Hawks
120 : 110
Miami Heat
Oct 16, 2024
Miami Heat
120 : 111
Atlanta Hawks
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