The Milwaukee Bucks bring an impressive eight-game winning streak into their Eastern Conference playoff opener against the Indiana Pacers, despite missing star guard Damian Lillard with a calf injury.
While the Bucks dominated the regular season series 3-1, the fourth-seeded Pacers enter as 5.5-point favorites behind their own hot stretch of winning seven of their last eight games.
This 4-5 matchup sets up as a clash between Giannis Antetokounmpo's physical dominance and Tyrese Haliburton's floor generalship in what projects to be a high-scoring affair at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks prediction: who will win?
For today's Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks matchup, our predictive model gives the Bucks a 51.5% chance of defeating the Pacers.
Pre-game probabilities
Indiana Pacers
Moneyline
Win %
48.5%
51.5%
Milwaukee Bucks
Indiana Pacers: 48.5% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (9441 points allowed, ranking 11th in the East defensively)
- Inconsistent form (Recent 3-2 record shows less momentum than Milwaukee's perfect streak)
- Home court advantage not translating to higher win probability (Despite home-court advantage, win probability is only 48.5%)
Milwaukee Bucks: 51.5% win probability
- Hot momentum (5-0 in recent form, one of only three teams with a perfect 5-game stretch)
- Strong defense (7th best in the East allowing just 9269 points across 82 games)
- Proven playoff experience (5th seed with 48-34 record despite playing in the competitive Eastern Conference)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Indiana Pacers | Milwaukee Bucks | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks preview
With the red-hot Bucks riding an eight-game winning streak into Indianapolis, we've got a fascinating 4-5 matchup that could be much closer than the 5.5-point spread suggests.
Milwaukee dominated the regular season series 3-1 despite Damian Lillard's inconsistent availability, and they'll need to rely heavily on Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.4 PPG, 11.9 RPG) again with Dame sidelined for Game 1.
The Pacers enter as one of the league's most dangerous offensive units, playing at the NBA's sixth-fastest pace while shooting a blistering 48.8% from the field under Tyrese Haliburton's elite playmaking.
Indiana's late-season surge (20-9 after the All-Star break) established them as legitimate threats in the East, but their defensive vulnerabilities against physical teams remain a concern.
Saturday's opener could feature a fascinating chess match between Milwaukee's third-ranked free throw attempt rate and Indiana's up-tempo attack, potentially pushing this game well beyond the 224.5 total despite playoff intensity.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks form
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks head to head
Indiana Pacers
20%
Milwaukee Bucks
80%
Apr 19, 2025
Indiana Pacers
0 : 0
Milwaukee Bucks
Mar 16, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks
126 : 119
Indiana Pacers
Mar 11, 2025
Indiana Pacers
115 : 114
Milwaukee Bucks
Dec 31, 2024
Indiana Pacers
112 : 120
Milwaukee Bucks
Nov 23, 2024
Milwaukee Bucks
129 : 117
Indiana Pacers
May 2, 2024
Indiana Pacers
120 : 98
Milwaukee Bucks
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