The Dallas Stars host the Colorado Avalanche in a high-stakes playoff opener Saturday night, with both Western Conference powers entering on drastically different trajectories.
While the Avalanche (49-29-4) bring momentum from a solid 5-4-1 stretch in their final ten games, the Stars (50-26-6) are looking to snap an alarming seven-game losing streak at the worst possible time.
With Dallas missing key defenseman Miro Heiskanen and Colorado benefiting from trade deadline acquisition MacKenzie Blackwood's improved goaltending, the stage is set for what oddsmakers project as a razor-thin contest with the Avalanche slight favorites despite playing on the road.
Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche matchup, our predictive model gives the Avs a 52.33% chance of defeating the Stars.
Pre-game probabilities
Dallas Stars
Moneyline
Win %
47.67%
52.33%
Colorado Avalanche
Dallas Stars: 47.67% win probability
- Terrible recent form (Lost all 5 recent games, the worst current streak in the West)
- Defensive pressure (224 goals against is higher than other top-tier Western teams)
- Psychological disadvantage (Despite 3rd place ranking, current form suggests a team in crisis)
Colorado Avalanche: 52.33% win probability
- Offensive firepower (277 goals scored, tied for 3rd most in the Western Conference)
- Momentum advantage (Recent form shows 3 wins in last 5 games compared to Dallas' 0-5 stretch)
- Goal-scoring consistency (Colorado averages 3.38 goals per game, showing they can overcome Dallas' defense)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
| Dallas Stars | Colorado Avalanche | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche preview
The Dallas Stars, once flying high in the Central Division, limp into the playoffs having lost their final seven regular season games while the Colorado Avalanche arrive with momentum and the edge in recent head-to-head matchups.
Nathan MacKinnon dominated for Colorado with 116 points this season, while the Stars will sorely miss defenseman Miro Heiskanen as they try to slow down the Avalanche's potent offense that ranked fifth in goals-for.
Mid-season acquisition MacKenzie Blackwood has transformed Colorado's goaltending situation, posting a solid 2.55 GAA with four shutouts compared to Jake Oettinger's respectable but less impressive numbers for Dallas.
Both teams finished the regular season with impressive stats – Dallas ranked third in goals-for while Colorado wasn't far behind at fifth – setting up what should be an evenly-matched series despite their contrasting forms.
The Stars will need Jason Robertson, listed as day-to-day but expected to play, to spark their offense after leading the team with 35 goals during the regular season.
Saturday's Game 1 at American Airlines Center opens what promises to be a tightly contested first-round series, with Colorado holding a slight edge after winning two of three regular-season meetings, including their most recent clash in mid-March.
Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche form
Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche head to head
Dallas Stars
67%
Colorado Avalanche
33%
Mar 16, 2025
Colorado Avalanche
4 : 3
Dallas Stars
Jan 18, 2025
Colorado Avalanche
6 : 3
Dallas Stars
Nov 30, 2024
Dallas Stars
5 : 3
Colorado Avalanche
Sep 28, 2024
Dallas Stars
4 : 2
Colorado Avalanche
Sep 24, 2024
Colorado Avalanche
2 : 3
Dallas Stars
May 18, 2024
Colorado Avalanche
1 : 2
Dallas Stars
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