The defending champion Boston Celtics (61-21) open their playoff campaign as heavy 13-point favorites against the Orlando Magic (41-41) in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference First Round at TD Garden.
While Boston boasts the league's second-best defense allowing just 107.2 points per game, Orlando brings the NBA's top-ranked defensive unit in terms of opponent assists (1,870) and points allowed (105.5 per game).
This matchup pits the balanced scoring attack of the Magic, led by Paolo Banchero and Cole Anthony, against the championship pedigree of a Celtics squad that dominated the regular season.
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic matchup, our predictive model gives the C's a 84.5% chance of defeating the Magic.
Pre-game probabilities
Boston Celtics
Moneyline
Win %
84.5%
15.5%
Orlando Magic
Boston Celtics: 84.5% win probability
- Dominant regular season record (61-21, second-best in the NBA)
- Elite defensive efficiency (allowed just 8787 points, the fewest in the league)
- Strong recent form (WWLWW, winning 4 of their last 5 games)
Orlando Magic: 15.5% win probability
- Mediocre overall record (41-41, just 7th in the Eastern Conference)
- Limited offensive production (8645 points scored, among the lowest in the NBA)
- Significant gap in team quality (20 fewer wins than Boston during the regular season)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Boston Celtics | Orlando Magic | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic preview
The defending champion Celtics open their title defense against an Orlando Magic squad that battled their way into the playoffs with a convincing play-in victory over Atlanta.
Boston's elite defense, ranked 2nd in points allowed this season, will look to contain Paolo Banchero and a Magic offense that struggled throughout the regular season (28th in scoring).
While the Celtics dominated the Eastern Conference with a 61-21 record, they'll need to shake off some late-season inconsistency, including a recent game against Charlotte where they shot just 38.9% from the field.
Orlando's top-ranked defense in assists allowed could disrupt Boston's ball movement, but the 13-point spread reflects the significant talent gap between these teams.
TD Garden promises to be electric for this Sunday afternoon showdown on ABC, with Payton Pritchard looking to build on his impressive 34-point performance in Boston's regular season finale.
The Magic will need continued balanced scoring from Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr., and Banchero if they hope to keep pace with the heavily-favored Celtics.
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic form
Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic head to head
Boston Celtics
20%
Orlando Magic
80%
Apr 20, 2025
Boston Celtics
0 : 0
Orlando Magic
Apr 9, 2025
Orlando Magic
96 : 76
Boston Celtics
Jan 18, 2025
Boston Celtics
121 : 94
Orlando Magic
Dec 24, 2024
Orlando Magic
108 : 104
Boston Celtics
Dec 17, 2023
Boston Celtics
114 : 97
Orlando Magic
Dec 16, 2023
Boston Celtics
128 : 111
Orlando Magic
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