The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets open their Western Conference First Round series Sunday night at Toyota Center, with the second-seeded Rockets entering as slight 1.5-point favorites despite public sentiment leaning toward the battle-tested Warriors.
Golden State rides the momentum of their Play-In Tournament victory over Memphis, where Jimmy Butler (38 points) and Stephen Curry (37 points) showcased their playoff pedigree, while Houston aims to prove their 52-win season wasn't a fluke behind All-Star Alperen Sengun and rising star Jalen Green.
Both teams split their regular season series with Golden State taking three of five meetings, setting the stage for what could be the most compelling first-round matchup in the Western Conference.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors matchup, our predictive model gives the Rockets a 66.25% chance of defeating the Warriors.
Pre-game probabilities
Houston Rockets
Moneyline
Win %
66.25%
33.75%
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets: 66.25% win probability
- Home court advantage with 52 wins this season (2nd in Western Conference)
- Strong scoring production (9372 points scored, 5th best in the West)
- Excellent recent form (LLLWW, finishing the season with back-to-back wins)
Golden State Warriors: 33.75% win probability
- Road performance issues (historical weakness for Golden State)
- Inconsistent recent form (LWLWL shows trouble maintaining momentum)
- Defensive vulnerability (9060 points allowed, middle of the pack in Western Conference)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Houston Rockets | Golden State Warriors | |
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| Moneyline |
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Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors preview
The Warriors-Rockets first-round playoff series tips off Sunday night with Golden State's veteran savvy clashing against Houston's youthful exuberance in what promises to be a fascinating stylistic matchup.
Fresh off their Play-In Tournament victory, Golden State rides the momentum of Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry's combined 75-point explosion against Memphis, though questions linger about their aging stars' recovery time.
Houston's emerging talent has quietly built an impressive 52-win season behind All-Star Alperen Sengun's double-double prowess and Jalen Green's explosive scoring, yet they enter as surprising underdogs despite home-court advantage.
The size advantage potentially tilts toward the Rockets, with Sengun likely to create problems for Golden State's smaller frontline defenders, while the Warriors' championship experience could prove decisive in crucial moments.
Toyota Center has been a fortress for Houston in first-round games, where they've won 14 of their last 15, though Golden State counters with six straight road victories.
With both teams ranking in the top 10 defensively during the regular season, expect a physical, grind-it-out affair as playoff basketball officially arrives.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors form
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors head to head
Houston Rockets
33%
Golden State Warriors
67%
Apr 7, 2025
Golden State Warriors
96 : 106
Houston Rockets
Feb 14, 2025
Houston Rockets
98 : 105
Golden State Warriors
Dec 12, 2024
Houston Rockets
91 : 90
Golden State Warriors
Dec 6, 2024
Golden State Warriors
99 : 93
Houston Rockets
Nov 3, 2024
Houston Rockets
121 : 127
Golden State Warriors
Apr 5, 2024
Houston Rockets
110 : 133
Golden State Warriors
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