The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to extend their dominance over the Memphis Grizzlies when the Western Conference's top seed hosts the eighth-seeded Grizzlies in Game 1 of their first-round playoff series at Paycom Center on Sunday afternoon.
OKC swept the regular season series 4-0 and has won nine straight against Memphis, with their elite defense (107.6 points allowed per game) poised to challenge a Grizzlies offense that recently secured their playoff spot with a convincing win over Dallas.
Though Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. provide Memphis with star power, Thunder MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads a Thunder squad that's heavily favored (-13.5) to continue their winning ways against a Grizzlies team that struggled down the stretch.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies prediction: who will win?
For today's Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 70% chance of defeating the Grizzlies.
Pre-game probabilities
Oklahoma City Thunder
Moneyline
Win %
70%
30%
Memphis Grizzlies
Oklahoma City Thunder: 70% win probability
- League-leading record (68-14, best in Western Conference)
- Exceptional defensive efficiency (allowed only 8826 points across 82 games, fewest in the West)
- Outstanding recent form (4-1 in last 5 games with WWWWL record)
Memphis Grizzlies: 30% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (allowed 9582 points, 5th most in Western Conference)
- Road performance issues (48-34 overall record suggests inconsistency away from home)
- Significant talent gap (20 fewer wins than OKC with identical games played)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Memphis Grizzlies | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies preview
The top-seeded Thunder welcome the 8th-seed Grizzlies to Paycom Center in what looks like a mismatch on paper, with OKC having swept Memphis 4-0 during the regular season by an average margin of 19.2 points.
MVP frontrunner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32.7 PPG) powers the league's most efficient defense, though his questionable status with a leg injury bears watching alongside teammates Chet Holmgren (back) and Isaiah Hartenstein (Achilles).
Memphis clawed their way into the playoffs with a convincing 120-106 win over Dallas behind Jaren Jackson Jr.'s 24 points, but they'll need more than momentum to overcome their struggles against the Thunder.
The Grizzlies bring the NBA's fastest pace and second-ranked offense (121.7 PPG) led by Ja Morant, but their road defense has been vulnerable, allowing nearly 118 points per game away from home.
Oklahoma City's league-leading defense and dominant home form—they've covered the spread in their last 11 games at Paycom Center against winning teams from Memphis—presents a formidable challenge for the Grizzlies.
The Thunder's extended rest could be either a blessing or a curse as they begin their championship quest against a Grizzlies squad with nothing to lose after their late-season stumbles.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies form
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies head to head
Oklahoma City Thunder
100%
Memphis Grizzlies
0%
Apr 20, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
0 : 0
Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 28, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
125 : 104
Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 6, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies
103 : 120
Oklahoma City Thunder
Feb 9, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies
112 : 125
Oklahoma City Thunder
Dec 30, 2024
Oklahoma City Thunder
130 : 106
Memphis Grizzlies
Jul 10, 2024
Oklahoma City Thunder
80 : 77
Memphis Grizzlies
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