The Washington Capitals (-145) look to leverage home-ice advantage against the Montreal Canadiens (+125) in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff matchup at Capital One Arena on Monday night.
Despite advanced models giving Washington a solid 61% win probability, the Canadiens enter with momentum following their impressive 4-2 victory over the Hurricanes, setting the stage for what could be a tighter contest than the odds suggest.
Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Washington Capitals vs Montreal Canadiens matchup, our predictive model gives the Canadiens a 54.5% chance of defeating the Caps.
Pre-game probabilities
Washington Capitals
Moneyline
Win %
45.5%
54.5%
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals: 45.5% win probability
- Inconsistent recent form (LWLLW) despite top conference position
- Below-average defensive record (232 goals against) for a conference leader
- Potentially overtaxed throughout regular season (51 wins but showing signs of fatigue in recent performances)
Montreal Canadiens: 54.5% win probability
- Strong recent form (WLLLW in last 5 games compared to Capitals' LWLLW)
- Balanced offense with 245 goals for, ranking 8th in the Eastern Conference
- Playoff-caliber performance as the 8th seed with 91 points in a tough Eastern Conference
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
| Washington Capitals | Montreal Canadiens | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens preview
The Washington Capitals enter Monday's Eastern Conference first-round opener as slight favorites, looking to leverage their impressive 51-22-9 regular season record and home-ice advantage at Capital One Arena against the Montreal Canadiens.
Both teams arrive with momentum shifts – Montreal coming off a confidence-boosting 4-2 victory over the Hurricanes while Washington stumbled in their finale, dropping a 5-2 decision to Pittsburgh.
Special teams could prove decisive, with the Capitals boasting a dangerous 23.53% power play conversion rate against Montreal's penalty kill, which has faced more opportunities (257) than any team in hockey.
The goaltending battle presents an intriguing subplot as Sam Montembeault (.899 career save percentage) squares off against Charlie Lindgren, whose .905 career mark suggests a slight edge for the Capitals.
Washington's offense has been particularly efficient this season, converting 12.63% of their shots compared to Montreal's 11.6%, despite the Canadiens actually attempting more shots overall.
The Atlantic Division underdogs will need to overcome both history and statistics in this series opener, though their disciplined approach (just 2 penalty minutes in their previous game) could help neutralize Washington's potent power play.
Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens form
Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens head to head
Washington Capitals
50%
Montreal Canadiens
50%
Jan 11, 2025
Washington Capitals
2 : 3
Montreal Canadiens
Dec 8, 2024
Montreal Canadiens
2 : 4
Washington Capitals
Oct 31, 2024
Washington Capitals
6 : 3
Montreal Canadiens
Feb 18, 2024
Montreal Canadiens
3 : 4
Washington Capitals
Feb 7, 2024
Washington Capitals
2 : 5
Montreal Canadiens
Oct 21, 2023
Montreal Canadiens
3 : 2
Washington Capitals
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