The Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers renew their fierce rivalry as they face off in Game 1 of their first-round NHL Eastern Conference best-of-seven series at Amalie Arena, with the Lightning entering as slight favorites (-132) after winning their last meeting 5-1.
While both teams finished the regular season with 47 wins, Tampa Bay holds key advantages with home-ice advantage, the NHL's top-scoring offense (3.6 goals per game), and netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.18 GAA, .921 save percentage, six shutouts).
The Panthers limp into the postseason having lost seven of their last ten games, including six straight on the road, setting the stage for a challenging series opener against their in-state rivals.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers matchup, our predictive model gives the Panthers a 52.5% chance of defeating the Lightning.
Pre-game probabilities
Florida Panthers
Moneyline
Win %
52.5%
47.5%
Tampa Bay Lightning
Florida Panthers: 52.5% win probability
- Strong defensive unit (223 goals against, 5th best in the Eastern Conference)
- Excellent recent form (LLWWW showcasing momentum heading into this matchup)
- Solid point production (98 points in 82 games, ranking 5th in the Eastern Conference)
Tampa Bay Lightning: 47.5% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performances (LWWLL showing vulnerability in crucial games)
- Higher goals conceded (219 goals against, which is still good but higher than Florida's)
- Road game struggles (Their 102 total points may not fully translate to home ice advantage in this specific matchup)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Florida Panthers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers preview
The Battle of Florida ignites once again as the Panthers and Lightning clash in what promises to be an electrifying first-round playoff series, with Tampa Bay hosting Game 1 at Amalie Arena on Tuesday night.
Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy enters the postseason in stellar form, posting a 2.18 GAA with six shutouts, including a commanding 5-1 victory over these same Panthers last week.
While both teams finished with 47 wins, Tampa Bay's offense has been downright lethal, leading the NHL with 3.6 goals per game and boasting the league's scoring champion in Nikita Kucherov (121 points).
The Panthers limp into the playoffs having lost seven of their last ten games and dropping six straight on the road – a concerning trend as they face a Lightning squad that finished with the Eastern Conference's third-best point total.
The goaltending duel between Vasilevskiy and Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky could ultimately determine this series, with tight, defensive hockey historically dominating their matchups – the under has hit in 13 of their last 20 meetings.
With the teams splitting their regular-season series 2-2, home ice advantage and Tampa's more consistent recent form give the Lightning a slight edge in what should be another classic chapter in this fierce cross-state rivalry.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers form
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers head to head
Tampa Bay Lightning
50%
Florida Panthers
50%
Apr 15, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
5 : 1
Florida Panthers
Mar 4, 2025
Florida Panthers
2 : 1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Dec 24, 2024
Florida Panthers
0 : 4
Tampa Bay Lightning
Dec 22, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 4
Florida Panthers
Oct 2, 2024
Tampa Bay Lightning
1 : 2
Florida Panthers
Sep 30, 2024
Florida Panthers
1 : 3
Tampa Bay Lightning
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