The Indiana Pacers look to build on their commanding Game 1 victory and take a 2-0 series lead when they host the Milwaukee Bucks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Tuesday night.
After dismantling Milwaukee 117-98 in the opener behind Pascal Siakam's efficient 25-point performance, Indiana enters as 4-point favorites against a Bucks squad that struggled despite Giannis Antetokounmpo's 36-point effort.
The Bucks will need significantly more production from starters like Taurean Prince and Kyle Kuzma—both scoreless in Game 1—to avoid falling into a deep playoff hole against a Pacers team that's won eight straight home games against Milwaukee.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks matchup, our predictive model gives the Pacers a 55% chance of defeating the Bucks.
Pre-game probabilities
Indiana Pacers
Moneyline
Win %
55%
45%
Milwaukee Bucks
Indiana Pacers: 55% win probability
- Superior offensive output (9624 points scored vs Bucks' 9472)
- Better recent form (WLWWW vs Bucks' WWWWW, but Pacers have faced tougher competition)
- Higher season win total (50 wins vs Bucks' 48 wins)
Milwaukee Bucks: 45% win probability
- Road disadvantage (Playing away against the 4th seed in the East)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (9269 points allowed, higher than several playoff teams)
- Lower position in conference standings (5th vs Pacers' 4th, suggesting overall performance gap)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Indiana Pacers | Milwaukee Bucks | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks preview
The Pacers flexed their muscles in Game 1 with a commanding 117-98 victory, building a 24-point halftime lead that left Milwaukee searching for answers heading into Tuesday's critical rematch at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Despite a herculean 36-point, 12-rebound effort from Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks' supporting cast disappeared, with starters Taurean Prince and Kyle Kuzma both going scoreless as Milwaukee shot an abysmal 9-for-37 from beyond the arc.
Pascal Siakam's efficient 25-point performance on 10-of-15 shooting led a balanced Indiana attack that saw Tyrese Haliburton orchestrate the offense masterfully with 12 assists while Myles Turner added 19 points and 4 blocks.
The Bucks, who've lost eight straight at Gainbridge Fieldhouse against winning Pacers teams, desperately need Damian Lillard (questionable) available if they hope to avoid a 2-0 hole before the series shifts to Milwaukee.
History provides a glimmer of hope for the Bucks as they've covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs, while Indiana has lost Game 2 in each of their last four playoff series when leading 1-0.
With Indiana installed as 4.5-point favorites and riding serious momentum, Milwaukee must find secondary scoring options beyond Antetokounmpo against a Pacers team that's converted Gainbridge Fieldhouse into one of the most formidable home courts in the Eastern Conference.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks form
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks head to head
Indiana Pacers
20%
Milwaukee Bucks
80%
Apr 22, 2025
Indiana Pacers
0 : 0
Milwaukee Bucks
Apr 19, 2025
Indiana Pacers
117 : 98
Milwaukee Bucks
Mar 16, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks
126 : 119
Indiana Pacers
Mar 11, 2025
Indiana Pacers
115 : 114
Milwaukee Bucks
Dec 31, 2024
Indiana Pacers
112 : 120
Milwaukee Bucks
Nov 23, 2024
Milwaukee Bucks
129 : 117
Indiana Pacers
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