After suffering a devastating 131-80 blowout in Game 1, the Memphis Grizzlies (48-34) face a critical moment as they attempt to level their first-round playoff series against the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) on Tuesday night at Paycom Center.
The Thunder, who have now won 10 straight games against Memphis, dominated every facet of the opener behind Aaron Wiggins' 21 points and Chet Holmgren's double-double, while the Grizzlies' stars Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. combined for just 13 points on 5-of-25 shooting.
With Oklahoma City's suffocating defense forcing 24 Grizzlies turnovers in Game 1, Memphis must find answers quickly against a Thunder team that hasn't shown any weakness in this matchup.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Oklahoma City Thunder vs Memphis Grizzlies matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder an 85% chance of defeating the Grizzlies.
Pre-game probabilities
Oklahoma City Thunder
Moneyline
Win %
85%
15%
Memphis Grizzlies
Oklahoma City Thunder: 85% win probability
- League-leading record (68-14 with an .829 win percentage)
- Elite defensive efficiency (Only 107.6 points allowed per game)
- Dominant recent form (Won 4 of their last 5 games)
Memphis Grizzlies: 15% win probability
- Significant win disparity (20 fewer wins than OKC)
- Defensive vulnerability (Allowed 116.9 points per game)
- Inconsistent performance (Alternating wins and losses in recent games)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Memphis Grizzlies | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder showed why they're the Western Conference's top seed in Game 1, demolishing the Memphis Grizzlies 131-80 in what became the most lopsided playoff opener in recent memory.
Memphis now faces the daunting task of regrouping after shooting a dismal 34.4% from the field while stars Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. combined for just 13 points on 5-of-25 shooting.
OKC's defense proved suffocating, forcing 24 Grizzlies turnovers while Aaron Wiggins (21 points) led a balanced Thunder attack that hardly needed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to dominate.
The Grizzlies, who entered with momentum from the Play-In Tournament, must find answers quickly as they've now lost ten straight against Oklahoma City.
Tuesday's clash sees Memphis trying to avoid a 2-0 hole against a Thunder team that has covered the spread in 12 consecutive home games against the Grizzlies.
Despite the 15-point spread, history offers Memphis a glimmer of hope – they've won three of their last four playoff games as road underdogs against OKC following a loss.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies form
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies head to head
Oklahoma City Thunder
80%
Memphis Grizzlies
20%
Apr 22, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
0 : 0
Memphis Grizzlies
Apr 20, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
131 : 80
Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 28, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
125 : 104
Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 6, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies
103 : 120
Oklahoma City Thunder
Feb 9, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies
112 : 125
Oklahoma City Thunder
Dec 30, 2024
Oklahoma City Thunder
130 : 106
Memphis Grizzlies
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