The Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche face off in a pivotal Game 3 showdown at Ball Arena on Wednesday night with their Western Conference first-round series deadlocked at 1-1 following Dallas' thrilling 4-3 overtime victory in Game 2.
Nathan MacKinnon has been Colorado's offensive catalyst with three goals in the series, while the Stars will look to build on their momentum despite winning just one of their last nine games overall.
Home ice could prove decisive as the Avalanche – who posted an impressive 26-12-3 record at Ball Arena during the regular season – aim to reclaim series control in front of their Denver faithful.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars matchup, our predictive model gives the Avs a 72.5% chance of defeating the Stars.
Pre-game probabilities
Colorado Avalanche
Moneyline
Win %
72.5%
27.5%
Dallas Stars
Colorado Avalanche: 72.5% win probability
- Offensive firepower (277 goals scored, tied for 3rd best in the Western Conference)
- Strong home-ice advantage (The Avalanche finished 5th in the Western Conference with 102 points)
- Momentum advantage (Recent form of WLLWL trumps Dallas' five straight losses)
Dallas Stars: 27.5% win probability
- Terrible recent form (LLLLL - lost 5 consecutive games heading into this matchup)
- Defensive struggles (224 goals against is significantly worse than Colorado's 234)
- Road game disadvantage (Dallas will be traveling to face a Colorado team that finished with a strong 102-point season)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
| Colorado Avalanche | Dallas Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars preview
The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars take their deadlocked first-round Western Conference playoff series to Denver's Ball Arena for a pivotal Game 3 on Wednesday night with the series tied 1-1 after Dallas' thrilling 4-3 overtime victory in Game 2.
Nathan MacKinnon has been a postseason force for Colorado with three goals in the first two games, while the Stars finally snapped an eight-game losing streak with Collin Blackwell playing the overtime hero on Monday.
Home ice could prove decisive for the Avalanche, who posted an impressive 26-12-3 record at Ball Arena during the regular season and will look to capitalize on the emotional boost of potentially welcoming back captain Gabriel Landeskog after a nearly three-year absence due to knee injuries.
Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger showed significant improvement in Game 2 with 34 saves after a shaky series opener, while Colorado's Mackenzie Blackwood has been solid despite his limited playoff experience.
The matchup has historically favored high-scoring affairs with the over hitting in the last five meetings between these Western Conference rivals.
All eyes will be on Tyler Seguin, who scored in Game 2 in just his third game back after missing 58 contests following hip surgery, providing Dallas with an unexpected offensive spark at the perfect time.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars form
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars head to head
Colorado Avalanche
50%
Dallas Stars
50%
Apr 22, 2025
Dallas Stars
4 : 3
Colorado Avalanche
Apr 20, 2025
Dallas Stars
1 : 5
Colorado Avalanche
Mar 16, 2025
Colorado Avalanche
4 : 3
Dallas Stars
Jan 18, 2025
Colorado Avalanche
6 : 3
Dallas Stars
Nov 30, 2024
Dallas Stars
5 : 3
Colorado Avalanche
Sep 28, 2024
Dallas Stars
4 : 2
Colorado Avalanche
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