The Washington Capitals look to build on their momentum after Alex Ovechkin's historic Game 1 overtime winner gave them a 3-2 victory and early series lead against the Montreal Canadiens.
With a commanding 26-9-6 home record and 61% win probability according to advanced models, the Capitals enter as -192 favorites to take a 2-0 series advantage before heading to Montreal.
The Canadiens, who showed resilience by erasing a two-goal third-period deficit in the opener, will need better execution from Sam Montembeault and their 20% effective power play to avoid falling into a dangerous playoff hole.
Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Washington Capitals vs Montreal Canadiens matchup, our predictive model gives the Caps a 55.33% chance of defeating the Habs.
Pre-game probabilities
Washington Capitals
Moneyline
Win %
55.33%
44.67%
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals: 55.33% win probability
- League-leading 111 points (Finished 1st in Eastern Conference with 111 points)
- Dominant home record (Capitals secured 51 wins overall, most in the conference)
- High-powered offense (288 goals scored, most in the Eastern Conference)
Montreal Canadiens: 44.67% win probability
- Poor defensive record (Allowed 265 goals, 8th most in Eastern Conference)
- Inconsistent recent form (WLLLW in last five games)
- Mediocre road performance (Finished 8th in conference with 91 points, 20 points behind Washington)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Washington Capitals | Montreal Canadiens | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens preview
The Eastern Conference playoff battle shifts into high gear tonight as the Montreal Canadiens look to bounce back after a heartbreaking 3-2 overtime loss to the Washington Capitals in Game 1 of their first-round series.
Alex Ovechkin played hero for Washington on Monday, netting two goals including his first-ever playoff overtime winner, while the Canadiens showed impressive resilience rallying from a two-goal deficit in the final ten minutes of regulation.
Montreal will need stronger early play at Capital One Arena, where the Capitals have been dominant this season with a stellar 26-9-6 home record.
Samuel Montembeault (33 saves in Game 1) faces another challenging test against a Washington offense that averages 3.73 goals per game at home.
The Canadiens' power play showed signs of life late in Game 1 when Cole Caufield found the net, but they'll need more production from their young stars to avoid heading home in an 0-2 hole against the more playoff-hardened Capitals.
Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens form
Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens head to head
Washington Capitals
67%
Montreal Canadiens
33%
Apr 21, 2025
Washington Capitals
3 : 2
Montreal Canadiens
Jan 11, 2025
Washington Capitals
2 : 3
Montreal Canadiens
Dec 8, 2024
Montreal Canadiens
2 : 4
Washington Capitals
Oct 31, 2024
Washington Capitals
6 : 3
Montreal Canadiens
Feb 18, 2024
Montreal Canadiens
3 : 4
Washington Capitals
Feb 7, 2024
Washington Capitals
2 : 5
Montreal Canadiens
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