The Cleveland Cavaliers look to take a commanding 2-0 lead as they host the Miami Heat in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference First Round matchup after dominating with a 121-100 victory in the opener.
Donovan Mitchell, who torched Miami for 30 points on efficient 57.9% shooting in Game 1, leads the heavily-favored Cavaliers (-12) against a Heat squad that desperately needs more production from role players like Duncan Robinson if they hope to avoid falling into a deep playoff hole.
With Cleveland's superior depth proving decisive in the late stages of Game 1, Miami faces an uphill battle at Rocket Arena where the Cavaliers have been nearly unstoppable this season.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat matchup, our predictive model gives the Cavs a 84.33% chance of defeating the Heat.
Pre-game probabilities
Cleveland Cavaliers
Moneyline
Win %
84.33%
15.67%
Miami Heat
Cleveland Cavaliers: 84.33% win probability
- League-leading 64 wins (most in the Eastern Conference)
- Dominant scoring output (9999 points scored, highest in the NBA)
- Strong defensive performance (9217 points allowed, 5th best in the East)
Miami Heat: 15.67% win probability
- Poor recent form (LWLWL in last five games)
- Struggling road record (only 37 wins in 82 games overall)
- Scoring deficiency (9069 points scored, 4th lowest in the Eastern Conference)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Miami Heat | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat preview
The Cavaliers flexed their muscles in Game 1 of this first-round Eastern Conference series, pulling away for a convincing 121-100 victory behind Donovan Mitchell's efficient 30-point performance and surprising firepower from Ty Jerome, who poured in 28 points off the bench.
Miami struggled to maintain its offensive rhythm in crucial stretches, particularly during a disastrous fourth quarter where they managed just 10 points over the final 7:25 as Cleveland turned a competitive game into a blowout.
While Bam Adebayo delivered with 24 points and 9 rebounds, the Heat sorely missed contributions from role players like Duncan Robinson (8 points) and need more production from their depleted roster that's still without Terry Rozier and Kevin Love.
Cleveland's remarkable 64-18 regular season record wasn't a fluke – they're shooting a blistering 49.1% from the field (2nd in NBA) while boasting a deep rotation that overwhelmed Miami down the stretch in the opener.
The 12.5-point spread reflects both teams' trajectories this season – the Cavaliers dominating at home while Miami limped into the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament after a 37-45 campaign.
With Cleveland's offense firing on all cylinders and their defensive pressure forcing turnovers (they recorded 8 steals in Game 1), the Heat will need significant adjustments to avoid falling into an 0-2 hole before the series shifts to Miami.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat form
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat head to head
Cleveland Cavaliers
80%
Miami Heat
20%
Apr 23, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
0 : 0
Miami Heat
Apr 20, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
121 : 100
Miami Heat
Mar 6, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
112 : 107
Miami Heat
Jan 30, 2025
Miami Heat
106 : 126
Cleveland Cavaliers
Dec 8, 2024
Miami Heat
122 : 113
Cleveland Cavaliers
Mar 24, 2024
Miami Heat
121 : 84
Cleveland Cavaliers
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