The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead when they visit the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum on Thursday night, riding an impressive 10-game winning streak against their first-round opponents.
The Thunder have dominated the first two games of the series, winning by comfortable margins while holding Memphis to just 89.5 points per game – a stark contrast to the Grizzlies' regular-season average of 121.7.
With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams leading Oklahoma City's balanced attack, the Grizzlies face a critical challenge to salvage their playoff hopes on home court, where they'll need more production from Ja Morant and improved shooting after connecting on just 24.6% from three-point range.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 68.75% chance of defeating the Grizzlies.
Pre-game probabilities
Oklahoma City Thunder
Moneyline
Win %
68.75%
31.25%
Memphis Grizzlies
Oklahoma City Thunder: 68.75% win probability
- League-leading record (68-14 overall, best in the Western Conference)
- Dominant scoring efficiency (9881 points scored, highest in the Western Conference)
- Elite defensive performance (8826 points allowed, fewest in the Western Conference)
Memphis Grizzlies: 31.25% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (9582 points allowed, 5th most in the Western Conference)
- Inconsistent recent form (WLLWW in last five games)
- Significant talent gap (20 fewer wins than OKC despite scoring nearly the same amount of points)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Memphis Grizzlies | Oklahoma City Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview
The relentless Thunder look to deliver a knockout blow as they head to FedExForum with a commanding 2-0 series lead, having dominated the Grizzlies by an average of 35 points through the first two contests.
Memphis finds itself in desperate territory after failing to crack 100 points in either game, shooting a dismal 38.6% from the field and an ice-cold 24.6% from three-point range against Oklahoma City's league-leading defense.
The Thunder's balanced attack continues to overwhelm opponents, with Jalen Williams (22 PPG), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (21 PPG), and Chet Holmgren (19.5 PPG, 10.5 RPG) all delivering efficient performances while controlling the glass with 15 offensive rebounds per game during this stretch.
Ja Morant (20 PPG) and the Grizzlies desperately need to capitalize on playing at FedExForum, where the home team has won seven straight playoff games, but they'll need to solve a Thunder defense that has utterly stifled their typically high-powered offense.
History doesn't favor Memphis in this matchup—the Thunder have won an astounding 10 straight against the Grizzlies and covered the spread in 15 of their last 16 night games.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder form
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder head to head
Memphis Grizzlies
33%
Oklahoma City Thunder
67%
Apr 22, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
118 : 99
Memphis Grizzlies
Apr 20, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
131 : 80
Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 28, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
125 : 104
Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 6, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies
103 : 120
Oklahoma City Thunder
Feb 9, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies
112 : 125
Oklahoma City Thunder
Dec 30, 2024
Oklahoma City Thunder
130 : 106
Memphis Grizzlies
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