The Toronto Maple Leafs are looking to take a commanding 3-0 series lead as they head to Canadian Tire Centre for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff battle against the Ottawa Senators.
After securing a dominant 6-2 victory in Game 1 and a nail-biting 3-2 overtime win in Game 2, the Maple Leafs have history on their side, having won all four previous playoff series between these provincial rivals.
With Anthony Stolarz standing tall in net (1.95 GAA, .934 save percentage) and Ottawa struggling to overcome early deficits, the Senators face a must-win situation on home ice to avoid the playoff sinkhole that few teams escape.
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 52% chance of defeating the Sens.
Pre-game probabilities
Toronto Maple Leafs
Moneyline
Win %
52%
48%
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs: 52% win probability
- League-leading offense (268 goals scored, 2nd highest in Eastern Conference)
- Perfect recent form (WWWWW in last five games showing peak performance)
- Superior standings position (2nd in Eastern Conference with 108 points)
Ottawa Senators: 48% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performance (WLWWL form shows vulnerability)
- Defensive concerns (234 goals against, worse than most top-5 teams)
- Point differential disadvantage (97 points vs Toronto's 108, an 11-point gap)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Ottawa Senators | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs preview
The Maple Leafs have seized control of this first-round playoff series, taking a commanding 2-0 lead back to Ottawa after Max Domi's overtime heroics secured a 3-2 win in Game 2 on Tuesday night.
Anthony Stolarz has been a brick wall for Toronto, posting a stellar 1.95 GAA and .934 save percentage, while Senators netminder Linus Ullmark has struggled with a concerning 4.39 GAA.
Toronto's star power has delivered when needed, with Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner all registering points in both victories.
The Senators have shown resilience by erasing a two-goal deficit to force overtime in Game 2, but slow starts have plagued Ottawa, falling behind 2-0 in both contests.
History doesn't favor the Senators, as Toronto has won all four previous playoff series between these provincial rivals, and the Maple Leafs haven't held a 2-0 series advantage in 23 years.
For Ottawa to claw back into this bitter rivalry matchup, they'll need to avoid another early hole and hope the home crowd at Canadian Tire Centre can spark an offensive resurgence from Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle.
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs form
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs head to head
Ottawa Senators
67%
Toronto Maple Leafs
33%
Apr 22, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 2
Ottawa Senators
Apr 20, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
6 : 2
Ottawa Senators
Mar 15, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
2 : 4
Ottawa Senators
Jan 26, 2025
Ottawa Senators
2 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nov 13, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
0 : 3
Ottawa Senators
Sep 24, 2024
Ottawa Senators
2 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
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