The Milwaukee Bucks find themselves in a must-win situation as they host the Indiana Pacers in Game 3 of their first-round playoff series, trailing 0-2 despite Damian Lillard's return to the lineup.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been dominant, averaging 34 points and 18 rebounds through two games, but the Bucks' supporting cast must step up at Fiserv Forum where they've historically dominated the Pacers.
With Indiana shooting a perfect 19-for-19 from the free-throw line in Game 2 and playing with supreme confidence, Milwaukee's season essentially hangs in the balance Friday night.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers matchup, our predictive model gives the Bucks a 71.67% chance of defeating the Pacers.
Pre-game probabilities
Milwaukee Bucks
Moneyline
Win %
71.67%
28.33%
Indiana Pacers
Milwaukee Bucks: 71.67% win probability
- Elite home-court advantage (Led by their perfect 5-0 recent form, suggesting peak performance at home)
- Defensive prowess (Allowed only 9269 points over 82 games, ranking among the best defensive teams in the Eastern Conference)
- Championship pedigree (48-34 record placed them 5th in the highly competitive Eastern Conference, demonstrating consistent winning ability)
Indiana Pacers: 28.33% win probability
- Below-average defensive reliability (Allowed 9441 points across the season, ranking in the bottom half of playoff teams defensively)
- Inconsistent road performance (Recent form of WLWWW shows some volatility in results away from home)
- Statistical disadvantage against elite teams (Despite a solid 50-32 record, their 4th place standing doesn't fully reflect their -172 point differential compared to Milwaukee's +203)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Milwaukee Bucks | Indiana Pacers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers preview
The Milwaukee Bucks find themselves in desperate territory as they return home to Fiserv Forum down 0-2 in their first-round playoff series against the Indiana Pacers, a shocking development for the fifth-seeded team that won three of four regular season matchups against Indy.
Despite Giannis Antetokounmpo's dominant performance in Game 2 (34 points, 18 rebounds), the Bucks couldn't overcome a balanced Pacers attack led by Pascal Siakam's 24-point, 11-rebound effort.
Even Damian Lillard's return to the lineup couldn't save Milwaukee, as the nine-time All-Star struggled with his shot, going just 4-for-13 from the field.
The Pacers have shot the lights out through two games, connecting on 16 three-pointers in Game 2 while perfectly converting all 19 free throw attempts.
History doesn't favor the Bucks digging out of this hole, but Milwaukee has won seven straight at Fiserv Forum against Indiana following a loss, giving the home faithful reason to believe a comeback is possible.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers form
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers head to head
Milwaukee Bucks
67%
Indiana Pacers
33%
Apr 22, 2025
Indiana Pacers
123 : 115
Milwaukee Bucks
Apr 19, 2025
Indiana Pacers
117 : 98
Milwaukee Bucks
Mar 16, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks
126 : 119
Indiana Pacers
Mar 11, 2025
Indiana Pacers
115 : 114
Milwaukee Bucks
Dec 31, 2024
Indiana Pacers
112 : 120
Milwaukee Bucks
Nov 23, 2024
Milwaukee Bucks
129 : 117
Indiana Pacers
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