The Washington Capitals look to push the Montreal Canadiens to the brink of elimination as they take a commanding 2-0 series lead into Bell Centre for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff matchup on Friday night.
After securing a dramatic 3-2 overtime victory in Game 1 and following it up with a disciplined 3-1 win in Game 2, the Capitals have stifled Montreal's offense, allowing just three total goals while Logan Thompson has emerged as a difference-maker between the pipes.
The Canadiens, desperate to avoid falling into a virtually insurmountable 3-0 hole, must find offensive solutions against Washington's second-ranked playoff defense while protecting home ice in what promises to be a pivotal contest.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Montreal Canadiens vs Washington Capitals matchup, our predictive model gives the Caps a 70.67% chance of defeating the Habs.
Pre-game probabilities
Washington Capitals
Moneyline
Win %
70.67%
29.33%
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals: 70.67% win probability
- Eastern Conference dominance (1st place with 111 points)
- Offensive firepower (288 goals scored, most in Eastern Conference)
- Ability to win on the road (51 wins overall suggests strong away performance)
Montreal Canadiens: 29.33% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (265 goals against, 3rd worst in Eastern playoff teams)
- Lower overall point total (91 points compared to Capitals' 111)
- Inconsistent recent form (WLLLW indicates struggles with consistency)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
| Montreal Canadiens | Washington Capitals | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals preview
The Washington Capitals head to Montreal with commanding 2-0 series lead, looking to push the Canadiens to the brink of elimination in their Eastern Conference first-round playoff matchup Friday night at Bell Centre.
Logan Thompson has been stellar between the pipes for Washington, allowing just three goals across the first two games while frustrating a Montreal offense that's struggled to find their rhythm.
The Canadiens have led for only 2:21 total in the series, with their Game 2 advantage quickly erased by Connor McMichael's equalizer and Dylan Strome's go-ahead goal just a minute apart.
Montreal netminder Sam Montembeault has done his part with solid performances, but his team's anemic offense—managing just three total goals in two games—has undermined their efforts.
The home ice shift gives Montreal a chance to reset, but they'll need to solve Thompson and generate more offensive pressure to avoid facing a nearly insurmountable 3-0 deficit.
With the Capitals' disciplined defensive approach and timely scoring proving effective thus far, the series now reaches a critical inflection point where desperation meets opportunity for the underdog Canadiens.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals form
Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals head to head
Montreal Canadiens
17%
Washington Capitals
83%
Apr 23, 2025
Washington Capitals
3 : 1
Montreal Canadiens
Apr 21, 2025
Washington Capitals
3 : 2
Montreal Canadiens
Jan 11, 2025
Washington Capitals
2 : 3
Montreal Canadiens
Dec 8, 2024
Montreal Canadiens
2 : 4
Washington Capitals
Oct 31, 2024
Washington Capitals
6 : 3
Montreal Canadiens
Feb 18, 2024
Montreal Canadiens
3 : 4
Washington Capitals
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