The Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves head to Target Center for a pivotal Game 3 with their first-round Western Conference series deadlocked at 1-1 following a defensive battle in Game 2.
After Minnesota dominated the series opener 117-95, the Lakers responded with a gritty 94-85 victory behind Luka Doncic's near triple-double (31-12-9) and perfect team free-throw shooting.
With LeBron James yet to play his best basketball and the Timberwolves looking to regain their shooting touch on home court, this Friday night showdown could determine which team seizes control of the series.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Lakers matchup, our predictive model gives the Lakers a 70% chance of defeating the Wolves.
Pre-game probabilities
Los Angeles Lakers
Moneyline
Win %
70%
30%
Minnesota Timberwolves
Los Angeles Lakers: 70% win probability
- Superior offensive efficiency (Lakers score 9298 points vs Wolves' 9372 despite playing the same number of games)
- Better conference standing (3rd in Western Conference vs Wolves' 6th position)
- Consistent recent form (Lakers going 3-2 in last five games with LWWLW pattern, showing ability to bounce back after losses)
Minnesota Timberwolves: 30% win probability
- Defensive vulnerability (allowed 8962 points this season, ranking middle-of-the-pack in Western Conference)
- Home court advantage not translating to consistent wins (49-33 overall record despite playing in a traditionally difficult arena)
- Inconsistent scoring output (9372 points scored across 82 games is relatively modest for a playoff team in the West)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Los Angeles Lakers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Best NBA sportsbook promos
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers preview
The series shifts to Target Center deadlocked at 1-1 after the Lakers responded to a Game 1 blowout with a gritty 94-85 defensive masterclass in Game 2.
LeBron James and Luka Doncic have carried Los Angeles so far, with Doncic putting up 31 points in their Game 2 victory while the Lakers shot a perfect 20-for-20 from the free throw line.
Minnesota will look to recapture their dominant Game 1 form where they shot over 51% from the field, a stark contrast to their frigid 38% showing on Tuesday night.
Julius Randle has emerged as Minnesota's most consistent offensive threat with 27 points in the last outing, while the Timberwolves need Jaden McDaniels to rediscover his Game 1 magic where he poured in 25 points on blistering 11-of-13 shooting.
The Lakers' road struggles (19-22 away from Crypto.com Arena) now face the test of Minnesota's home cooking, where the Wolves went 25-16 during the regular season.
Both teams have showcased elite defense through two games — neither has topped 38% from three-point range — suggesting another physical, grind-it-out battle could be on tap in the crucial Game 3.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers form
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers head to head
Minnesota Timberwolves
17%
Los Angeles Lakers
83%
Apr 23, 2025
Los Angeles Lakers
94 : 85
Minnesota Timberwolves
Apr 20, 2025
Los Angeles Lakers
95 : 117
Minnesota Timberwolves
Feb 28, 2025
Los Angeles Lakers
111 : 102
Minnesota Timberwolves
Dec 14, 2024
Minnesota Timberwolves
97 : 87
Los Angeles Lakers
Dec 3, 2024
Minnesota Timberwolves
109 : 80
Los Angeles Lakers
Oct 23, 2024
Los Angeles Lakers
110 : 103
Minnesota Timberwolves
Betting on the NBA?
Sporting Post is your trusted source for NBA betting. We deliver expert NBA predictions, top NBA picks, and the latest NBA odds. Our detailed game analysis and real-time insights help you bet with confidence. Plus, we’ve reviewed and tested the best NBA betting sites to ensure you’re using safe and trusted online sportsbooks, the best betting apps, and betting sites.
Share this post
Related
