The Oklahoma City Thunder are poised to complete a series sweep over the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 4 after erasing a stunning 29-point deficit in their Game 3 victory.
With Ja Morant listed as doubtful after suffering an injury last game, the shorthanded Grizzlies face an uphill battle against a Thunder squad that has won 12 straight following road victories.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 31-point performance in Game 3 highlighted Oklahoma City's resilience, while Memphis hopes home court advantage might help them avoid elimination despite entering as 15-point underdogs.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder matchup, our predictive model gives the Thunder a 54% chance of defeating the Grizzlies.
Pre-game probabilities
Oklahoma City Thunder
Moneyline
Win %
54%
46%
Memphis Grizzlies
Oklahoma City Thunder: 54% win probability
- League-leading record (68-14 overall, best in the Western Conference)
- Elite defensive efficiency (allowed just 107.6 points per game, 2nd best in the conference)
- Dominant recent form (4-1 in last five games with a WWWWL record)
Memphis Grizzlies: 46% win probability
- Defensive inconsistency (allowed 116.9 points per game, ranked 10th in the West)
- Mediocre win percentage (48-34 record, significantly behind OKC's 68-14 mark)
- Inconsistent recent performance (3-2 in last five games with a WLLWW record)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Memphis Grizzlies | Oklahoma City Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder preview
The Thunder look to complete their first-round sweep of the Grizzlies on Saturday afternoon at FedExForum, following their stunning comeback from 29 points down to steal Game 3 in Memphis.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continued his dominance with 31 points and 8 assists in that victory, while Jalen Williams added 26 points on efficient 9-of-16 shooting as OKC outscored Memphis by an astonishing 64-31 margin in the second half.
The Grizzlies' task grows even more daunting with Ja Morant listed as doubtful after suffering an injury in Game 3, potentially leaving Scotty Pippen Jr. (28 points in Game 3) and Jaren Jackson Jr. to shoulder the offensive load.
Despite Memphis traditionally performing well at home in playoff settings—winning seven of their last eight playoff games at FedExForum—the Thunder's championship-caliber defense and clinical execution have been too much for the young Grizzlies squad to handle throughout this series.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder form
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder head to head
Memphis Grizzlies
40%
Oklahoma City Thunder
60%
Apr 26, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies
0 : 0
Oklahoma City Thunder
Apr 25, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies
108 : 114
Oklahoma City Thunder
Apr 22, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
118 : 99
Memphis Grizzlies
Apr 20, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
131 : 80
Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 28, 2025
Oklahoma City Thunder
125 : 104
Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 6, 2025
Memphis Grizzlies
103 : 120
Oklahoma City Thunder
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