The top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers look to take a commanding 3-0 series lead as they travel to South Beach for Game 3 against the Miami Heat, who face a must-win situation despite covering the spread in Game 2.
With Donovan Mitchell averaging 30 points in the series and the Cavaliers shooting a blistering 45.5% from three-point range, Miami's home court advantage may not be enough as they struggle with perimeter defense and potential lineup gaps with Terry Rozier still questionable.
All eyes will be on Tyler Herro, who exploded for 33 points in Game 2, to see if he can spark the Heat's first victory after they showed resilience by cutting a 19-point deficit to just two late in the fourth quarter.
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers prediction: who will win?
For today's Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers matchup, our predictive model gives the Cavs a 79% chance of defeating the Heat.
Pre-game probabilities
Cleveland Cavaliers
Moneyline
Win %
79%
21%
Miami Heat
Cleveland Cavaliers: 79% win probability
- League-leading 64 wins (64-18 record shows consistent dominance)
- Exceptional offense (999.9 points scored, highest in the league)
- Strong point differential (+782 between goals for and against showing complete team performance)
Miami Heat: 21% win probability
- Below .500 record (37-45 indicates season-long struggles)
- Poor recent form (LWLWL showing inconsistency down the stretch)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (9023 points allowed vs 9069 scored, barely positive)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Miami Heat | Cleveland Cavaliers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers preview
The sizzling Cavaliers look to seal a stranglehold on their first-round series as they take a commanding 2-0 lead to South Beach, where Miami desperately needs to defend home court.
Donovan Mitchell has been nothing short of spectacular through two games, dropping 30 points in Game 2 while masterfully navigating Cleveland's high-powered offense that's connecting on a postseason-best 45.5% from beyond the arc.
Miami showed impressive resilience in Game 2, storming back from a 19-point deficit to pull within two in the fourth quarter behind Tyler Herro's 33-point explosion, but ultimately couldn't complete the comeback.
The Heat's perimeter defense has been their Achilles' heel, allowing Cleveland to rain 22 three-pointers in Game 2 – a troubling sign as they return to Kaseya Center where they've struggled with a 19-22 home record this season.
Miami will once again be shorthanded without veterans Terry Rozier and Kevin Love, putting even more pressure on Bam Adebayo to control the interior against Cleveland's versatile frontcourt duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
With Darius Garland questionable with a toe injury, the Cavaliers might need to lean even more heavily on Mitchell's scoring prowess, though their depth has been a strength throughout the series with Ty Jerome and Max Strus providing consistent firepower off the bench.
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers form
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers head to head
Miami Heat
20%
Cleveland Cavaliers
80%
Apr 26, 2025
Miami Heat
0 : 0
Cleveland Cavaliers
Apr 23, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
121 : 112
Miami Heat
Apr 20, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
121 : 100
Miami Heat
Mar 6, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
112 : 107
Miami Heat
Jan 30, 2025
Miami Heat
106 : 126
Cleveland Cavaliers
Dec 8, 2024
Miami Heat
122 : 113
Cleveland Cavaliers
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