The Florida Panthers aim to push the Tampa Bay Lightning to the brink of elimination as they return home with a commanding 2-0 series lead for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff matchup on Saturday afternoon at Amerant Bank Arena.
Sergei Bobrovsky has been nearly impenetrable in net for Florida, allowing just two goals through two games while posting a stellar .951 save percentage, putting immense pressure on a struggling Lightning offense that has failed to capitalize on power play opportunities.
The Lightning, who went just 18-19-4 on the road during the regular season, face a must-win situation against a Panthers squad that has dominated the recent rivalry by winning 12 of their last 16 meetings.
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: who will win?
For today's Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Panthers a 56.33% chance of defeating the Lightning.
Pre-game probabilities
Florida Panthers
Moneyline
Win %
56.33%
43.67%
Tampa Bay Lightning
Florida Panthers: 56.33% win probability
- Strong home-ice advantage (47 wins on the season, 5th in Eastern Conference)
- Excellent offensive production (252 goals scored, showcasing consistent firepower)
- Momentum advantage with 'LLWWW' recent form compared to Tampa's 'LWWLL'
Tampa Bay Lightning: 43.67% win probability
- Recent struggles (LWWLL form showing inconsistency heading into this matchup)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (219 goals against, higher than Florida's defensive record)
- Road performance concerns (47-27-8 overall record but Florida holds home-ice advantage)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
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Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning preview
The Lightning find themselves in desperate need of a response as they head to Amerant Bank Arena for Game 3, trailing 2-0 in their Eastern Conference first-round series against the Panthers.
Florida's defense has suffocated Tampa Bay's high-powered offense, limiting them to just two goals across the opening games while Sergei Bobrovsky has been nearly impenetrable with a .951 save percentage.
Nikita Kucherov, Tampa's regular-season points leader, has managed just one assist in the series so far – a troubling sign for a Lightning team that's struggling to generate quality scoring chances.
The Panthers have flexed their depth with five players already notching three points each, including Nate Schmidt who leads the team with three goals.
Home ice could prove decisive as Florida boasted a strong 27-12-2 home record during the regular season, while Tampa struggled to an 18-19-4 mark on the road.
For the Lightning, Andrei Vasilevskiy (3.56 GAA in the series) will need to rediscover his championship form quickly if Tampa hopes to avoid falling into a nearly insurmountable 3-0 hole.
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