Philadelphia Union look to continue their dominance over D.C. United when they meet on Saturday, with the hosts having won 67% of recent meetings including a commanding 4-0 victory in their last encounter.
Bradley Carnell's side enters on shaky form (LWLDLW) but showed promise in their recent 3-0 win over Atlanta, while D.C. United has struggled defensively, conceding 14 goals across their last 6 matches.
Despite D.C. coming off a 2-1 win against New York Red Bulls, our analysis points to a 2-1 victory for Philadelphia, with the hosts' balanced attack likely to overcome Troy Lesesne's injury-depleted squad.
Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Philadelphia Union vs D.C. United matchup, our predictive model gives the Union a 70.75% chance of defeating D.C. United.
Pre-game probabilities
Philadelphia Union
Moneyline
Win %
70.75%
29.25%
D.C. United
Philadelphia Union: 70.75% win probability
- Potent offense (16 goals scored in 9 matches, 3rd highest in the Eastern Conference)
- Strong recent form (3 wins in last 5 matches with a WLDLW record)
- Solid defensive record (9 goals conceded in 9 matches, 5th best defensive record in the conference)
D.C. United: 29.25% win probability
- Poor defensive record (19 goals conceded in 9 matches, second-worst in the Eastern Conference)
- Dismal recent form (4 consecutive losses in their last 5 matches with a WLLLL record)
- Road struggles (Currently 13th in the standings with just 9 points from 9 games played)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top MLS experts to give you a clear edge.
Rather than digging through countless opinions, you can rely on our predictions to reflect the broader market sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, team data, and betting trends—then our AI assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These scores are averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability, offering a data-driven snapshot of what the smartest minds in MLS are thinking.
| Philadelphia Union | D.C. United | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United preview
Philadelphia Union will look to continue their dominance over D.C. United when the Eastern Conference rivals face off this Saturday at Subaru Park, following a comprehensive 4-0 victory in their most recent meeting last September.
The Union enter the match with inconsistent form, having won two of their last six games, most recently dispatching Atlanta United 3-0 with goals from Quinn Sullivan, Danley Jean Jacques and Tai Baribo.
D.C. United arrives with defensive concerns, having conceded 14 goals in their last six matches, though they'll be buoyed by their recent 2-1 win over New York Red Bulls where João Peglow netted twice.
Bradley Carnell's side is expected to stick with their 4-4-2 formation, while D.C. United manager Troy Lesesne faces significant squad challenges with Conner Antley, Jackson Hopkins, and Hakim Karamoko all sidelined through injury.
The visitors will likely look to Christian Benteke to lead their attack in a 3-4-2-1 setup, though they'll need to address their defensive frailties against a Union side that has dominated this fixture in recent years.
Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United form
Philadelphia Union vs. D.C. United head to head
Philadelphia Union
100%
D.C. United
0%
Sep 22, 2024
Philadelphia Union
4 : 0
D.C. United
May 4, 2024
D.C. United
2 : 2
Philadelphia Union
Aug 26, 2023
D.C. United
1 : 3
Philadelphia Union
May 17, 2023
Philadelphia Union
0 : 0
D.C. United
Aug 20, 2022
D.C. United
0 : 6
Philadelphia Union
Jul 8, 2022
Philadelphia Union
7 : 0
D.C. United
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