The Toronto Maple Leafs look to complete a stunning first-round sweep as they visit the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre on Saturday, carrying a commanding 3-0 series lead into Game 4.
Anthony Stolarz has been stellar for Toronto with a .917 save percentage, while the Senators must find answers after dropping a tight 3-2 decision in Game 3.
With the Maple Leafs converting 24.77% of their power play opportunities this season and Ottawa boasting the league's most potent power play with 64 goals, special teams could ultimately determine whether the Battle of Ontario extends beyond Saturday night.
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 65.5% chance of defeating the Sens.
Pre-game probabilities
Toronto Maple Leafs
Moneyline
Win %
65.5%
34.5%
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs: 65.5% win probability
- Elite offensive production (268 goals scored, 2nd highest in Eastern Conference)
- Outstanding recent form (WWWWW, riding a perfect five-game winning streak)
- Superior position in standings (2nd in Eastern Conference with 108 points compared to Ottawa's 6th position with 97 points)
Ottawa Senators: 34.5% win probability
- Inconsistent performance (recent form of WLWWL showing volatility)
- Defensive vulnerability (234 goals against, significantly more than top Eastern teams)
- Lower win percentage (45 wins in 82 games, compared to Toronto's 52 wins)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Ottawa Senators | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs preview
The Maple Leafs stand on the precipice of a first-round sweep, carrying a commanding 3-0 series lead into Canadian Tire Centre for Saturday's Game 4 showdown with the Senators.
Toronto's narrow 3-2 victory in Game 3 showcased their special teams advantage, with the Leafs converting once on the power play while Stolarz continued his stellar postseason form.
Ottawa's power play—statistically the league's most potent during the regular season—managed to break through once in Game 3, but they'll need more offensive output to extend their season.
The rivalry intensifies as Linus Ullmark defends Ottawa's net against a Maple Leafs squad that finished the regular season with 108 points, 11 more than their Ontario rivals.
Toronto's disciplined approach will be tested, having accumulated 12 penalty minutes last game against a Senators team that thrives with the man advantage.
This classic Battle of Ontario playoff matchup features two teams with remarkably similar offensive output during the regular season—Toronto with 267 goals, Ottawa with 242—but the Leafs' playoff experience appears to be making the difference when it matters most.
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs form
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs head to head
Ottawa Senators
50%
Toronto Maple Leafs
50%
Apr 24, 2025
Ottawa Senators
2 : 3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Apr 22, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 2
Ottawa Senators
Apr 20, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
6 : 2
Ottawa Senators
Mar 15, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
2 : 4
Ottawa Senators
Jan 26, 2025
Ottawa Senators
2 : 1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nov 13, 2024
Toronto Maple Leafs
0 : 3
Ottawa Senators
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