The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors face off in a pivotal Game 3 with their first-round playoff series tied 1-1, as Jimmy Butler's questionable status looms large over the Warriors' game plan.
Jalen Green's explosive 38-point performance in Game 2 showcased the Rockets' young firepower, while Stephen Curry looks to shoulder an even heavier offensive load for Golden State at Chase Center.
With the Warriors' depth already stretched thin and Houston gaining confidence after evening the series, Saturday's matchup presents a crucial turning point that could ultimately define which team advances.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets matchup, our predictive model gives the Rockets a 53.5% chance of defeating the Warriors.
Pre-game probabilities
Houston Rockets
Moneyline
Win %
53.5%
46.5%
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets: 53.5% win probability
- Superior regular season record (52-30 compared to Warriors' 48-34)
- Better defensive efficiency (9002 points allowed vs Warriors' 9060)
- Strong recent form with back-to-back wins (LLLWW) coming into this matchup
Golden State Warriors: 46.5% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performance (LWLWL in last five games)
- Weaker defensive record (9060 points allowed, ranking 7th in Western Conference)
- Lower standing position (7th in West vs Rockets' 2nd place finish)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Golden State Warriors | Houston Rockets | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets preview
The Warriors and Rockets bring their deadlocked playoff series to Chase Center with Golden State holding home court advantage after splitting the first two games in Houston.
Stephen Curry faces mounting pressure to carry the scoring load for Golden State, especially with Jimmy Butler's status uncertain following his tailbone injury in Game 2.
Houston's young squad showed remarkable poise in Game 2, with Jalen Green erupting for 38 points including eight three-pointers—silencing critics after his jittery playoff debut.
The battle between defensive efficiency and playoff experience looms large, as the Warriors (ranked 4th defensively) must find ways to contain the Sengun-Green tandem that dominated last time out.
Expect the Warriors to lean heavily on their championship DNA at home, though Houston's defensive intensity has already disrupted Golden State's rhythm throughout the series.
Both teams have struggled to crack 100 points consistently in this grinding defensive series, with the Warriors particularly vulnerable if Butler can't suit up against Houston's physical perimeter defenders.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets form
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets head to head
Golden State Warriors
67%
Houston Rockets
33%
Apr 24, 2025
Houston Rockets
109 : 94
Golden State Warriors
Apr 21, 2025
Houston Rockets
85 : 95
Golden State Warriors
Apr 7, 2025
Golden State Warriors
96 : 106
Houston Rockets
Feb 14, 2025
Houston Rockets
98 : 105
Golden State Warriors
Dec 12, 2024
Houston Rockets
91 : 90
Golden State Warriors
Dec 6, 2024
Golden State Warriors
99 : 93
Houston Rockets
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