The Milwaukee Bucks face a critical Game 4 showdown against the Indiana Pacers on Sunday night, looking to even the series at 2-2 after finding their rhythm in Friday's dominant 117-101 victory.
With the home team winning each game in this series so far, Milwaukee will lean on Giannis Antetokounmpo's playoff brilliance (35.7 PPG, 14 RPG) and hope for continued production from Gary Trent Jr., who set a franchise playoff record with nine three-pointers in Game 3.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers matchup, our predictive model gives the Bucks a 73% chance of defeating the Pacers.
Pre-game probabilities
Milwaukee Bucks
Moneyline
Win %
73%
27%
Indiana Pacers
Milwaukee Bucks: 73% win probability
- Recent momentum with a perfect 5-0 record in their last five games (WWWWW)
- Strong defensive efficiency, allowing fewer points (9269) than the Pacers (9441) despite similar offensive output
- Higher win percentage at 58.5% (48-34) while playing in the more competitive Eastern Conference
Indiana Pacers: 27% win probability
- Inconsistent recent form (WLWWW) suggests vulnerability, especially on the road
- Defensive liability, giving up 9441 points (24th in the league) despite their strong offensive numbers
- Struggled against top Eastern Conference teams, making this road contest particularly challenging
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Milwaukee Bucks | Indiana Pacers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers preview
The Bucks kept their first-round playoff hopes alive on Friday night, riding a historic shooting performance from Gary Trent Jr. and another dominant showing from Giannis Antetokounmpo to cut Indiana's series lead to 2-1.
Milwaukee's home court has proven decisive in this series, with the host team winning all three games—a trend the Bucks hope continues as they look to even things up on Sunday night.
After struggling in his first two games back from injury, all eyes will be on Damian Lillard's performance, as his shooting touch could prove the difference-maker in what's become a compelling Eastern Conference battle.
The Pacers, who shot an uncharacteristic 31.7% from beyond the arc in Game 3, will need Pascal Siakam to continue his efficient scoring while hoping Tyrese Haliburton can regain his playmaking magic at Fiserv Forum.
With Bennedict Mathurin's status uncertain due to an abdominal contusion, Indiana might face an uphill battle against a Milwaukee squad that hasn't lost at home in their last five outings.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers form
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers head to head
Milwaukee Bucks
67%
Indiana Pacers
33%
Apr 26, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks
117 : 101
Indiana Pacers
Apr 22, 2025
Indiana Pacers
123 : 115
Milwaukee Bucks
Apr 19, 2025
Indiana Pacers
117 : 98
Milwaukee Bucks
Mar 16, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks
126 : 119
Indiana Pacers
Mar 11, 2025
Indiana Pacers
115 : 114
Milwaukee Bucks
Dec 31, 2024
Indiana Pacers
112 : 120
Milwaukee Bucks
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