The Washington Capitals look to continue their playoff momentum as they head to Bell Centre holding a critical 2-1 series lead over the Montreal Canadiens in their Eastern Conference first-round matchup.
Despite dropping Game 3 in a 6-3 setback where Montreal capitalized on 5 power play opportunities, the Capitals' second-ranked NHL offense (286 goals this season) makes them slight favorites at -152 for Sunday's pivotal Game 4.
Our predictive model gives Washington a narrow 51% win probability in what promises to be another tightly contested battle between these evenly matched teams.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Montreal Canadiens vs Washington Capitals matchup, our predictive model gives the Caps a 63% chance of defeating the Habs.
Pre-game probabilities
Washington Capitals
Moneyline
Win %
63%
37%
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals: 63% win probability
- League-leading position (1st in Eastern Conference with 111 points)
- Dominant regular season record (51 wins in 82 games)
- Strong goal production (288 goals scored, 3rd highest in the league)
Montreal Canadiens: 37% win probability
- Poor defensive performance (265 goals against, 7th worst in the league)
- Middle-of-the-pack standing (8th in Eastern Conference with 91 points)
- Inconsistent recent form (WLLLW shows volatility in performance)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
| Montreal Canadiens | Washington Capitals | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Best NHL sportsbook promos
Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals preview
The Capitals bring their 2-1 series lead to Bell Centre Sunday evening, looking to rebound from a rough 6-3 defeat in Game 3 where Montreal's offense exploded for six goals on 40 shots.
Washington's powerhouse offense has netted 286 goals this season (second in the NHL), but their normally reliable defense faltered last game, spending a concerning 24 minutes in the penalty box while Montreal capitalized with two power-play goals.
Canadiens goaltender Sam Montembeault faces a critical test against Washington's dangerous attack, with Logan Thompson likely manning the crease for the visiting Capitals.
Montreal's home crowd could prove pivotal as the underdog Canadiens, who've displayed surprising resilience in this first-round Eastern Conference matchup, aim to even the series.
With Washington entering as slight favorites (-152), this pivotal Game 4 showdown pits the Capitals' offensive firepower against a Canadiens squad that suddenly found its scoring touch.
Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals form
Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals head to head
Montreal Canadiens
33%
Washington Capitals
67%
Apr 25, 2025
Montreal Canadiens
6 : 3
Washington Capitals
Apr 23, 2025
Washington Capitals
3 : 1
Montreal Canadiens
Apr 21, 2025
Washington Capitals
3 : 2
Montreal Canadiens
Jan 11, 2025
Washington Capitals
2 : 3
Montreal Canadiens
Dec 8, 2024
Montreal Canadiens
2 : 4
Washington Capitals
Oct 31, 2024
Washington Capitals
6 : 3
Montreal Canadiens
Betting on the NHL?
Sporting Post is your trusted guide for NHL betting. We offer expert NHL predictions, top NHL picks, and the latest NHL odds. Our analysis and real-time insights help you make smart, confident bets. Make sure to use the best sportsbooks, sports betting apps, and betting sites. We've reviewed and tested the best NHL betting sites here.
Share this post
Related
