The Florida Panthers hold a slim 2-1 series lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning as they prepare to face off in Game 4 at Amerant Bank Arena in a battle between two offensive powerhouses.
Tampa Bay's scoreless performance in Game 3 has put added pressure on goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to outduel Florida's Sergei Bobrovsky in what has become a crucial turning point in this Eastern Conference first-round matchup.
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning matchup, our predictive model gives the Lightning a 58% chance of defeating the Panthers.
Pre-game probabilities
Tampa Bay Lightning
Moneyline
Win %
58%
42%
Florida Panthers
Tampa Bay Lightning: 58% win probability
- Offensive firepower (294 goals scored, 3rd highest in the Eastern Conference)
- Higher position in standings (3rd place with 102 points compared to Panthers' 5th place)
- Better recent performance (3-2-0 in last five games vs Panthers' 2-3-0)
Florida Panthers: 42% win probability
- Less effective offense (252 goals for, 42 fewer than Tampa Bay)
- Lower points total (98 points compared to Tampa Bay's 102)
- Home ice advantage not translating to better season record (47 wins vs Tampa's 47, despite home advantage)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Florida Panthers | Tampa Bay Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning preview
The Battle of Florida heats up Monday night as the Panthers look to extend their 2-1 series lead against the Lightning in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference first-round matchup at Amerant Bank Arena.
Coming off a 2-0 shutout victory in Game 3, Florida aims to tighten its grip on the series behind Sergei Bobrovsky, who has been stellar between the pipes.
Tampa Bay's high-powered offense—ranked first in the NHL with 292 goals this season—has mysteriously gone quiet, failing to convert on five power play opportunities in their last outing despite a typically deadly 25.86% conversion rate during the regular season.
Lightning netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy (.917 career save percentage) will need to maintain his elite form while hoping his teammates can solve Florida's defensive puzzle.
The Panthers' balanced attack has been bolstered by special teams success this season, converting 23.53% of their power plays while killing penalties at an 80.74% clip.
With both squads boasting considerable firepower and championship pedigree, this rivalry showdown promises intensity as Jon Cooper's Lightning squad faces mounting pressure to even the series before heading back to Tampa.
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning form
Florida Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning head to head
Florida Panthers
50%
Tampa Bay Lightning
50%
Apr 26, 2025
Florida Panthers
1 : 5
Tampa Bay Lightning
Apr 24, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
0 : 2
Florida Panthers
Apr 23, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
2 : 6
Florida Panthers
Apr 15, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning
5 : 1
Florida Panthers
Mar 4, 2025
Florida Panthers
2 : 1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Dec 24, 2024
Florida Panthers
0 : 4
Tampa Bay Lightning
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