Warriors vs Rockets Prediction, Odds & Game Preview 4/28/2025

The Golden State Warriors look to take commanding control of their first-round playoff series as they host the Houston Rockets in Game 4 with a 2-1 lead already in hand.

Stephen Curry has been electric throughout the series, averaging 29 points while shooting a blistering 45.2% from beyond the arc, while the second-seeded Rockets continue to struggle with Jalen Green's inconsistent production.

With Jimmy Butler's status still uncertain after missing Game 3, the Warriors aim to leverage their home court advantage at Chase Center where they've won 12 of their last 16 games.

At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.

Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.

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Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets preview

The Warriors seized control of this first-round Western Conference battle with a decisive Game 3 victory at Chase Center, riding Stephen Curry's scorching 36-point performance to a 2-1 series advantage over the higher-seeded Rockets.

Houston's inconsistent offense has plagued them throughout the series, with Jalen Green's production fluctuating wildly from a 38-point explosion in Game 2 to single-digit outputs in Games 1 and 3.

All eyes will be on Jimmy Butler's game-time decision after missing Game 3 with a deep gluteal muscle contusion, though Golden State proved they can thrive without him as Jonathan Kuminga stepped into the starting lineup.

Fred VanVleet appears to have broken out of his shooting slump with 17 points in Game 3, offering a glimmer of hope for a Rockets squad that's struggling to find reliable scoring beyond Alperen Sengun.

The Warriors' championship pedigree continues to show as they've managed to make the 2-seed Rockets look inexperienced, with all three games so far finishing under the projected total in a surprisingly defensive-minded series.

Houston desperately needs a road win to avoid heading home facing elimination, but they'll need significantly more offensive firepower to overcome Curry and a Warriors team that's won 12 of their last 16 games at Chase Center.

Key stats

1

The Rockets sit 2nd in the Western Conference with a 52-30 record, while the Warriors are in 7th at 48-34—a four-game difference.

2

Houston has won their last two games (LLLWW) while Golden State has alternated wins and losses in their last five (LWLWL).

3

The Rockets' point differential (+370) is significantly better than the Warriors' (+271), suggesting Houston has been more dominant in their wins.

4

Golden State's offense has been slightly less productive than Houston's (9331 points vs. 9372), despite both teams playing all 82 games.

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