The Golden State Warriors look to take commanding control of their first-round playoff series as they host the Houston Rockets in Game 4 with a 2-1 lead already in hand.
Stephen Curry has been electric throughout the series, averaging 29 points while shooting a blistering 45.2% from beyond the arc, while the second-seeded Rockets continue to struggle with Jalen Green's inconsistent production.
With Jimmy Butler's status still uncertain after missing Game 3, the Warriors aim to leverage their home court advantage at Chase Center where they've won 12 of their last 16 games.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets matchup, our predictive model gives the Warriors a 63.25% chance of defeating the Rockets.
Pre-game probabilities
Golden State Warriors
Moneyline
Win %
63.25%
36.75%
Houston Rockets
Golden State Warriors: 63.25% win probability
- Home court advantage (Warriors finished with a 48-34 record overall, making them a strong home team)
- Balanced offensive attack (Warriors scored 9331 points across 82 games, averaging 113.8 points per game)
- Superior net rating (Warriors outscored opponents by 271 points across the season, while Rockets only had a +370 differential)
Houston Rockets: 36.75% win probability
- Recent inconsistent form (LLLWW in their last five games shows volatility)
- Road performance struggles (Their 52-30 record includes more road losses than the Warriors)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (Allowed 9002 points over 82 games, ranking them middle of the pack defensively)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Golden State Warriors | Houston Rockets | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets preview
The Warriors seized control of this first-round Western Conference battle with a decisive Game 3 victory at Chase Center, riding Stephen Curry's scorching 36-point performance to a 2-1 series advantage over the higher-seeded Rockets.
Houston's inconsistent offense has plagued them throughout the series, with Jalen Green's production fluctuating wildly from a 38-point explosion in Game 2 to single-digit outputs in Games 1 and 3.
All eyes will be on Jimmy Butler's game-time decision after missing Game 3 with a deep gluteal muscle contusion, though Golden State proved they can thrive without him as Jonathan Kuminga stepped into the starting lineup.
Fred VanVleet appears to have broken out of his shooting slump with 17 points in Game 3, offering a glimmer of hope for a Rockets squad that's struggling to find reliable scoring beyond Alperen Sengun.
The Warriors' championship pedigree continues to show as they've managed to make the 2-seed Rockets look inexperienced, with all three games so far finishing under the projected total in a surprisingly defensive-minded series.
Houston desperately needs a road win to avoid heading home facing elimination, but they'll need significantly more offensive firepower to overcome Curry and a Warriors team that's won 12 of their last 16 games at Chase Center.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets form
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets head to head
Golden State Warriors
50%
Houston Rockets
50%
Apr 27, 2025
Golden State Warriors
104 : 93
Houston Rockets
Apr 24, 2025
Houston Rockets
109 : 94
Golden State Warriors
Apr 21, 2025
Houston Rockets
85 : 95
Golden State Warriors
Apr 7, 2025
Golden State Warriors
96 : 106
Houston Rockets
Feb 14, 2025
Houston Rockets
98 : 105
Golden State Warriors
Dec 12, 2024
Houston Rockets
91 : 90
Golden State Warriors
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