The Milwaukee Bucks face elimination as they head to Gainbridge Fieldhouse for a crucial Game 5 against the Indiana Pacers, trailing 1-3 in their first-round playoff series and now without star Damian Lillard who's out with a torn Achilles.
The Bucks will need much more from supporting cast members like Brook Lopez and Kyle Kuzma, who combined for just 9 points in their 129-103 Game 4 collapse, while the Pacers look to close out the series at home where they've dominated Milwaukee in recent matchups.
Despite Giannis Antetokounmpo's consistent production (28 points, 15 rebounds in Game 4), Milwaukee's underperforming role players face a confident Pacers squad that shot a blistering 60% from the field in their last outing.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks matchup, our predictive model gives the Pacers a 57.5% chance of defeating the Bucks.
Pre-game probabilities
Indiana Pacers
Moneyline
Win %
57.5%
42.5%
Milwaukee Bucks
Indiana Pacers: 57.5% win probability
- Superior offensive production (9624 points scored, ranking 3rd in Eastern Conference)
- Better overall record (50-32 compared to Milwaukee's 48-34)
- Strong home court momentum (Recent form of WLWWW shows 4 wins in last 5 games)
Milwaukee Bucks: 42.5% win probability
- Defensive vulnerabilities (9269 points allowed, ranking 9th in Eastern Conference)
- Inconsistent road performance (48-34 overall record indicates struggles away from home)
- Lower scoring efficiency (9472 points scored despite allowing nearly the same amount)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Indiana Pacers | Milwaukee Bucks | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks preview
The Pacers are on the cusp of advancing to the second round after dismantling the Bucks 129-103 in Game 4, taking a commanding 3-1 series lead heading into Tuesday's pivotal clash at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Milwaukee's uphill battle just became a mountain climb with the devastating news that Damian Lillard is lost for the season with a torn Achilles, leaving Giannis Antetokounmpo (28 points, 15 rebounds in Game 4) desperately needing support from underperforming teammates like Brook Lopez and Kyle Kuzma.
Indiana's balanced attack proved unstoppable on Sunday with eight players scoring at least 12 points, while Myles Turner's efficient 23-point performance and Tyrese Haliburton's masterful floor generalship (17 points, 15 assists) showcased why this Pacers team is firing on all cylinders.
History doesn't favor the visitors either, as the Bucks have dropped nine straight at Gainbridge Fieldhouse against winning Pacers teams.
The home crowd will be electric as Indiana looks to close out the series against a wounded Milwaukee squad that's running out of answers and healthy bodies.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks form
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks head to head
Indiana Pacers
40%
Milwaukee Bucks
60%
Apr 29, 2025
Indiana Pacers
0 : 0
Milwaukee Bucks
Apr 28, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks
103 : 129
Indiana Pacers
Apr 26, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks
117 : 101
Indiana Pacers
Apr 22, 2025
Indiana Pacers
123 : 115
Milwaukee Bucks
Apr 19, 2025
Indiana Pacers
117 : 98
Milwaukee Bucks
Mar 16, 2025
Milwaukee Bucks
126 : 119
Indiana Pacers
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