The Washington Capitals stand on the brink of advancing to the second round as they host the desperate Montreal Canadiens in Game 5 with a commanding 3-1 series lead.
After surrendering a 2-0 lead in Game 4, the Canadiens collapsed in the third period, allowing four unanswered goals including two from Washington's Brandon Duhaime.
With goaltending concerns lingering for Montreal as Sam Montembeault battles injury, the Capitals look to close out the series on home ice where they've been dominant in the first two games.
Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Washington Capitals vs Montreal Canadiens matchup, our predictive model gives the Caps a 52.5% chance of defeating the Habs.
Pre-game probabilities
Washington Capitals
Moneyline
Win %
52.5%
47.5%
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals: 52.5% win probability
- League-leading 111 points in the Eastern Conference (51 wins in 82 games)
- Potent offense with 288 goals scored (3.51 goals per game, 2nd highest in East)
- Strong home-ice advantage as the #1 seed in the conference (home teams typically win 55-60% of NHL games)
Montreal Canadiens: 47.5% win probability
- Below-average defensive record (265 goals against, 9th worst in Eastern Conference)
- Inconsistent recent form (WLLLW in last five games showing volatility)
- Significant gap in season points (91 points vs Capitals' 111, creating a 20-point differential)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts. Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts..
| Washington Capitals | Montreal Canadiens | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens preview
The Capitals stand on the precipice of advancing to the Eastern Conference second round as they host the desperate Montreal Canadiens in Game 5 with a commanding 3-1 series lead.
Washington's late-game execution proved decisive in Game 4, turning a 2-2 deadlock into a 5-2 victory behind Brandon Duhaime's clutch performance.
Montreal's special teams have been their lifeline in this series, converting an impressive 38.5% of power play opportunities, but their third-period collapse on Sunday exposed serious vulnerabilities.
The goaltending situation remains critical for the Canadiens with Sam Montembeault nursing a lower-body injury, potentially forcing rookie Jakub Dobes back between the pipes against Washington's potent offense that's averaging 3.5 goals per game this postseason.
Logan Thompson has been steady for the Capitals with a career .912 save percentage, giving Washington the edge as they look to close out the series on home ice where they've been dominant in Games 1 and 2.
The Canadiens will need to recapture their Game 3 desperation when they exploded for six goals, otherwise their season likely ends tonight at Capital One Arena.
Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens form
Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens head to head
Washington Capitals
67%
Montreal Canadiens
33%
Apr 27, 2025
Montreal Canadiens
2 : 5
Washington Capitals
Apr 25, 2025
Montreal Canadiens
6 : 3
Washington Capitals
Apr 23, 2025
Washington Capitals
3 : 1
Montreal Canadiens
Apr 21, 2025
Washington Capitals
3 : 2
Montreal Canadiens
Jan 11, 2025
Washington Capitals
2 : 3
Montreal Canadiens
Dec 8, 2024
Montreal Canadiens
2 : 4
Washington Capitals
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