The Dallas Stars look to clinch their Western Conference first-round series as they visit the Colorado Avalanche for Game 6 at Ball Arena, holding a commanding 3-2 lead after Monday's decisive 6-2 victory.
Jake Oettinger's solid goaltending (2.58 GAA, .914 save percentage) has been pivotal for Dallas, while Colorado will need Nathan MacKinnon to continue his playoff dominance (5 goals, 7 points) to force a Game 7.
With both goalies performing well and history favoring low-scoring affairs in Colorado, expect a tight, defensive battle as the Stars aim to advance while the desperate Avalanche fight to extend their season.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars matchup, our predictive model gives the Stars a 58% chance of defeating the Avs.
Pre-game probabilities
Dallas Stars
Moneyline
Win %
58%
42%
Colorado Avalanche
Dallas Stars: 58% win probability
- Superior point production (106 points vs 102 for Colorado this season)
- Better defensive record (224 goals against compared to Colorado's 234)
- Higher conference standing (3rd in Western Conference vs Colorado's 5th place finish)
Colorado Avalanche: 42% win probability
- Recent inconsistency (WLLWL in their last five games)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (234 goals against, 10th highest in Western Conference)
- Home ice advantage negated by Dallas's strong road performance (Dallas finished 3rd overall in Western Conference)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
| Colorado Avalanche | Dallas Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars preview
The Stars stand one win away from advancing past Colorado after Monday's convincing 6-2 victory gave Dallas a 3-2 series lead heading into a crucial Game 6 at Ball Arena.
Jake Oettinger has been rock-solid for Dallas with a .914 save percentage in the series, including a stellar performance in their first visit to Colorado where he stopped 27 of 28 shots.
Nathan MacKinnon continues to drive the Avalanche offense with five goals and seven points, but Colorado's defense has faltered at critical moments, allowing 12 goals in their three losses.
Both goaltenders have posted similar numbers—Blackwood with a 2.38 GAA for Colorado and Oettinger at 2.58 for Dallas—suggesting Thursday's elimination game could come down to special teams and defensive discipline.
The Stars will need to maintain their forecheck and neutral zone presence to slow Colorado's attack, while the desperate Avalanche must provide Blackwood with clearer sightlines as they fight to force a Game 7 back in Dallas.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars form
Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars head to head
Colorado Avalanche
50%
Dallas Stars
50%
Apr 29, 2025
Dallas Stars
6 : 2
Colorado Avalanche
Apr 27, 2025
Colorado Avalanche
4 : 0
Dallas Stars
Apr 24, 2025
Colorado Avalanche
1 : 2
Dallas Stars
Apr 22, 2025
Dallas Stars
4 : 3
Colorado Avalanche
Apr 20, 2025
Dallas Stars
1 : 5
Colorado Avalanche
Mar 16, 2025
Colorado Avalanche
4 : 3
Dallas Stars
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