NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/01/2025

The Pistons kept their playoff hopes alive with a gutsy Game 5 win at Madison Square Garden and now return home with momentum on their side. Little Caesars Arena was electric in Games 3 and 4, where Detroit nearly pulled off victories (losing by just a combined 3 points).

What's particularly telling is that Detroit has led New York in the fourth quarter of every game this series. That pattern suggests they're consistently competitive but have struggled to close—something they finally managed in Game 5.

Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart are both nursing minor injuries from Game 5, limiting their effectiveness. Brunson particularly struggled last game, shooting just 4-of-16 with four turnovers. Meanwhile, Cade Cunningham came up clutch for Detroit despite not having his best shooting night.

The Pistons have won 8 straight as favorites against the Knicks following a win, suggesting they perform well in this exact scenario. New York has also surprisingly lost 6 of their last 8 night games against winning Eastern Conference teams.

With the crowd behind them and this being an elimination game, expect Detroit's role players like Ausar Thompson (who dropped 22 points in Game 5) and Tobias Harris to step up again. The Pistons should force a Game 7 with a narrow home victory.

While recent games in this series have skewed lower-scoring, Game 5 exploded for 246 total points, demonstrating these teams' offensive capabilities when they get rolling. The game total opened at 224 for Game 1 and has since dropped 13 points—creating value on the over.

The regular season meetings between Denver and LA tell a compelling story, with their four matchups producing totals of 213, 248, 218, and 229 points. This suggests their natural tendency is toward higher-scoring affairs rather than the defensive struggles seen in Games 2-4.

Individually, Jamal Murray has scored 21+ points in four of five games this series, including a 43-point explosion in Game 5. Aaron Gordon has been a reliable secondary scorer with at least 14 points in all five contests, including games of 25 and 23 points.

For the Clippers, James Harden is likely to be more aggressive facing elimination after attempting just 20 total shots over the last two losses. In the first three games (two wins and an OT loss), Harden went 24-for-53 from the floor and 11-for-24 from three.

With the Clippers desperate to force Game 7 and the Nuggets looking to close out, expect a more open, offensive-minded contest. The current total of 211 seems artificially low based on the scoring history between these teams.

Despite the Clippers being favored to win the series before Game 5, this 6.5-point spread appears disrespectful to the defending champion Nuggets. Denver is coming off a dominant Game 5 victory and has championship experience that can't be undervalued in close-out scenarios.

The Clippers have struggled closing games throughout this series, blowing several opportunities to take commanding leads. James Harden is also coming off an embarrassing performance, continuing his troubling pattern of playoff disappointments when his team needs him most.

Denver has the best player on the court in Nikola Jokic, who's been a consistent triple-double threat this series. Meanwhile, Jamal Murray has elevated his game in typical playoff fashion, giving the Nuggets the kind of star power that can neutralize home-court advantage.

Historically, the Nuggets have won their last five playoff games as underdogs against Pacific Division opponents following a win. Additionally, the underdog has covered in eight of Denver's last nine Western Conference First Round games.

While the Clippers could certainly win to force Game 7, Denver's championship pedigree and the Clippers' history of playoff collapses suggests this should be a closely contested battle. Take the points with the Nuggets.