NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 05/01/2025

The Maple Leafs-Senators series has swung dramatically with Ottawa finding momentum in Games 4 and 5 after Toronto controlled the first three contests. This is the perfect time for Toronto's experienced core to step up and close out this series on the road.

Toronto's power play was explosive in the early games, and they dominated the faceoff circle which gave them control. While they've sputtered recently, playing from behind and giving up shorthanded goals, the Leafs' veteran playoff experience should prove crucial in a close-out opportunity.

Ottawa has gained confidence but still lacks significant playoff experience, which can lead to critical mistakes in high-pressure elimination games. The Senators' inexperience cuts both ways - it keeps them free from the weight of disappointment that often plagues Toronto, but also makes them vulnerable in clutch moments.

The Maple Leafs should capitalize on lessons learned from their recent stumbles and make the necessary adjustments. Their Core Four will likely recognize this as a statement game and respond accordingly.

In playoff hockey, experience often prevails in elimination scenarios, and Toronto has been here before. Expect the Leafs to lean on their playoff-tested lineup to overcome recent struggles and secure the win.

The Maple Leafs vs Senators matchup looks primed to deliver goals tonight. The series has been inconsistent with totals, but the current offensive trends and desperation from both teams point to a higher-scoring affair.

Multiple expert sources have highlighted this over bet, with one model assigning it a 51.6% probability and a 2.0% edge at the attractive +102 odds. That's solid value for a playoff game between two teams capable of offensive outbursts.

Toronto's power play was explosive early in the series, and Game 1 saw the Maple Leafs go over the total all by themselves. While the goaltending has been solid at times, the offensive firepower on both sides suggests goals are coming.

In elimination games, we often see more risks taken as the trailing team pushes for offense while the leading team finds counterattacking opportunities. With Toronto looking to close out and Ottawa fighting to stay alive, expect more open play than in previous contests.

The Senators will have home ice advantage and should feed off their crowd's energy, leading to increased offensive chances. Meanwhile, Toronto's stars should be motivated to finish the series, creating a perfect storm for multiple goals.

The Golden Knights have all the momentum heading into this elimination game in Minnesota. Vegas has found their offensive rhythm, scoring 15 goals in this series, and looks poised to close things out on the road.

Vegas has the offensive firepower to control this game from the start, with Tomas Hertl, Brett Howden, and the forward unit creating scoring chances through quick passes and strong offensive zone presence. Their ability to maintain possession will be crucial against a Wild team fighting for survival.

Defensively, the Golden Knights should limit Minnesota's opportunities with Noah Hanifin and Alex Pietrangelo creating turnovers and restricting quality shots. Goaltender Adin Hill has shown he can make the big saves when needed, coming off a performance where they allowed just two goals.

The Knights have the playoff experience advantage, having won the Stanley Cup recently, and understand how to close out a series on the road. Their veteran leadership should help them maintain composure in what will likely be a hostile environment.

While Minnesota has scored 17 goals in the series, Vegas has gotten stronger as the series has progressed, winning consecutive games and building confidence. The Knights should complete the job with a disciplined, complete performance.

The Stars and Avalanche are trending toward a tightly contested Game 6 with elimination on the line for Colorado. In their two victories this series, the Avalanche have shown remarkable defensive prowess, holding Dallas to just 1 total goal across those games.

Goaltending should be the story here, with Mackenzie Blackwood posting an impressive .961 save percentage at Ball Arena in Games 3 and 4. Despite a rough Game 5, Blackwood has been solid overall with a 2.38 GAA and .909 save percentage in the series.

On the Dallas side, Jake Oettinger has been equally formidable in Colorado, turning aside 58 of 62 shots in two games at Ball Arena for a .935 save percentage. The Stars have effectively neutralized Colorado's power play, holding them to just 17.7% efficiency.

Both teams have been middle-of-the-pack offensively in the playoffs, with Colorado ranking 9th and Dallas ranking 12th in goals per game. Three of the first five games in this series have finished under the total, including both played in Colorado.

With elimination pressure and strong defensive structures on both sides, expect a cautious, low-scoring affair where both teams prioritize avoiding costly mistakes rather than pushing for offensive flair.

The Kings present excellent value as substantial underdogs against the Oilers. Despite Edmonton winning three straight in this series, our analysis reveals a potential upset opportunity with Los Angeles at attractive +140 odds.

Multiple expert sources highlight the Kings' potential in this matchup, with one model assigning a compelling 2.5% edge to Los Angeles on the moneyline. That's significant value for a playoff team with their capabilities, even against the high-powered Oilers.

While Edmonton has been potent offensively with 11 goals in their last three home games, the Kings have historically performed well as underdogs in playoff situations. Desperation often fuels impressive performances, and Los Angeles faces elimination.

The Oilers' penalty kill sits at just 16th in the league, potentially giving the Kings opportunities on special teams despite their modest 17% power play conversion rate. In playoff hockey, special teams success often determines outcomes in tight games.

With Edmonton potentially feeling comfortable after their three consecutive wins, this creates a classic letdown scenario where Los Angeles could surprise with a focused, desperate performance to extend the series.