The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators face off in a crucial Game 6 showdown at Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday night, with the momentum dramatically shifting after Ottawa's back-to-back wins have cut Toronto's series lead to 3-2.
After dominating the first three games, the Maple Leafs now find themselves fighting to avoid a Game 7 against a surging Senators team that has discovered its playoff identity behind Linus Ullmark's stellar goaltending.
With provincial pride and playoff advancement hanging in the balance, this latest chapter in the bitter Ontario rivalry promises high-stakes drama as Toronto aims to finally close out the series while Ottawa looks to complete a remarkable comeback.
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs matchup, our predictive model gives the Leafs a 62.5% chance of defeating the Sens.
Pre-game probabilities
Toronto Maple Leafs
Moneyline
Win %
62.5%
37.5%
Ottawa Senators
Toronto Maple Leafs: 62.5% win probability
- Superior season performance (52 wins compared to Ottawa's 45)
- Excellent recent form (WWWWW - five consecutive wins)
- More potent offense (268 goals scored versus Ottawa's 243)
Ottawa Senators: 37.5% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performances (WLWWL - only 3 wins in last 5 games)
- Defensive vulnerability (234 goals conceded, ranking mid-table in Eastern Conference)
- Lower overall point total (97 points compared to Toronto's 108, creating an 11-point gap)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
| Ottawa Senators | Toronto Maple Leafs | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs preview
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators will reignite their bitter provincial rivalry in Game 6 tonight, with Ottawa riding momentum after back-to-back wins have turned what looked like a Toronto sweep into a potential seven-game thriller.
The Senators staved off elimination with a convincing 4-0 shutout victory in Game 5, where Linus Ullmark stonewalled Toronto with 29 saves for his first career playoff shutout.
Toronto's once-potent power play (31.3% in the playoffs) has gone cold at the worst possible time, while Ottawa has found unexpected offensive contributions from Dylan Cozens and Thomas Chabot to complement their stars.
The Maple Leafs, haunted by their recent elimination game struggles, must find a way to counter Ottawa's surging confidence or risk becoming just the fifth team in NHL history to blow a 3-0 series lead.
Anthony Stolarz is expected to return between the pipes for Toronto despite allowing four goals in Game 5, while Ullmark looks to build on his shutout performance for the Senators.
For a Toronto squad led by their experienced 'Core Four', tonight represents their third chance to close out a scrappy but less playoff-tested Ottawa team that suddenly believes they can make history.
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs form
Ottawa Senators vs. Toronto Maple Leafs head to head
Ottawa Senators
50%
Toronto Maple Leafs
50%
Apr 29, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
0 : 4
Ottawa Senators
Apr 26, 2025
Ottawa Senators
4 : 3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Apr 24, 2025
Ottawa Senators
2 : 3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Apr 22, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
3 : 2
Ottawa Senators
Apr 20, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
6 : 2
Ottawa Senators
Mar 15, 2025
Toronto Maple Leafs
2 : 4
Ottawa Senators
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