The Golden State Warriors look to close out their first-round playoff series against the Houston Rockets at Chase Center on Friday night, carrying a 3-2 lead after strategically resting their stars in Game 5's road loss.
After Houston stayed alive with a dominant 131-116 victory, Warriors veterans Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green return well-rested for what could be the decisive game against a Rockets team that has struggled to find consistent offensive production from star Jalen Green.
With Houston's playoff hopes hanging by a thread, the Game 6 showdown will test whether the Warriors' championship experience can overcome the Rockets' defensive prowess in a series where momentum has swung dramatically.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets matchup, our predictive model gives the Warriors a 55% chance of defeating the Rockets.
Pre-game probabilities
Golden State Warriors
Moneyline
Win %
55%
45%
Houston Rockets
Golden State Warriors: 55% win probability
- Strong home court advantage (48-34 overall record shows resilience at Chase Center)
- Explosive offense (9331 points scored, ranking 7th in the West)
- Better defensive efficiency (9060 points allowed compared to Houston's 9002 despite similar games played)
Houston Rockets: 45% win probability
- Recent inconsistent form (LLLWW in last five games)
- Road struggles (Position differential: 2nd in standings vs Warriors' 7th suggests underperformance away from home)
- Offensive limitations (9372 points scored but less efficient with more losses than Warriors)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts.
Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
| Golden State Warriors | Houston Rockets | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets preview
The Warriors stand on the precipice of advancing to the Western Conference semifinals, holding a 3-2 series lead as they welcome the Rockets to Chase Center for a pivotal Game 6 showdown Friday night.
Golden State's veterans strategically conserved energy in Game 5's blowout loss, with Curry, Butler, and Green all playing fewer than 25 minutes – a calculated gamble by Steve Kerr to ensure his stars are fresh for a potential series-clincher at home.
Houston kept their season alive with an impressive 131-116 victory, getting balanced scoring from Fred VanVleet (26 points), Amen Thompson (25), and Dillon Brooks (24), though they'll need similar production on the road where wins have been elusive.
The Warriors' defensive intensity will likely return at full strength after essentially conceding Game 5 early, with Draymond Green expected to resume his disruptive coverage on Alperen Sengun, who despite averaging 20.8 points and 11 rebounds this postseason, hasn't dominated as expected.
Golden State's championship experience looms large over this matchup, while Houston's inconsistent offense – particularly Jalen Green's playoff struggles (under 12 points in four of five games) – raises questions about their ability to force a decisive Game 7 back in Houston.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets form
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets head to head
Golden State Warriors
67%
Houston Rockets
33%
Apr 30, 2025
Houston Rockets
131 : 116
Golden State Warriors
Apr 29, 2025
Golden State Warriors
109 : 106
Houston Rockets
Apr 27, 2025
Golden State Warriors
104 : 93
Houston Rockets
Apr 24, 2025
Houston Rockets
109 : 94
Golden State Warriors
Apr 21, 2025
Houston Rockets
85 : 95
Golden State Warriors
Apr 7, 2025
Golden State Warriors
96 : 106
Houston Rockets
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