The Philadelphia Union, riding high after back-to-back 3-0 victories and sitting third in the Eastern Conference, face a Montreal side desperate for their first win of the 2025 MLS season at Saputo Stadium this Saturday.
Despite Montreal's winless record, history favors the Canadian side who defeated Philadelphia 4-2 in their last home meeting and will look to capitalize on the Union's concerning five-match losing streak on Canadian soil.
With Israeli striker Baribo leading the MLS scoring charts with seven goals and Albanian forward Vrioni returning from injury for Montreal, both teams have the firepower to deliver an entertaining clash that oddsmakers have surprisingly listed as an even matchup.
Montreal vs. Philadelphia Union prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Montreal vs Philadelphia Union matchup, our predictive model gives the Union a 59% chance of defeating the Impact.
Pre-game probabilities
Philadelphia Union
Moneyline
Win %
59%
41%
Montreal
Philadelphia Union: 59% win probability
- Potent attack (19 goals scored, 3rd best in the league)
- Strong overall record (6 wins in 10 matches, tied for 2nd most wins)
- Top-3 standing (Currently 3rd in the Eastern Conference with 19 points)
Montreal: 41% win probability
- League's worst record (No wins in 10 matches, bottom of the table)
- Anemic offense (Only 4 goals scored, worst in the league)
- Poor recent form (LDLLD in last five matches, showing no signs of improvement)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top MLS experts to give you a clear edge.
Rather than digging through countless opinions, you can rely on our predictions to reflect the broader market sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, team data, and betting trends—then our AI assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These scores are averaged to create an 'expert opinion' win probability, offering a data-driven snapshot of what the smartest minds in MLS are thinking.
| Montreal | Philadelphia Union | Draw | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Montreal vs. Philadelphia Union preview
The Philadelphia Union arrive at Stade Saputo riding high after back-to-back 3-0 wins, with Taty Baribo's league-leading seven goals powering their third-place Eastern Conference position.
Meanwhile, CF Montreal remains the only MLS side without a win in 2025, but history suggests this matchup could flip the script—Montreal demolished Philadelphia 4-2 in their last Canadian encounter.
The Union have struggled mightily on Canadian soil, losing their last five matches north of the border, a trend that offers Montreal a glimmer of hope despite their dismal start.
Montreal received a boost midweek when striker Gjorgi Vrioni returned from injury to score a late equalizer against Toronto in Canadian Championship play, potentially providing the offensive spark for a team that's managed just four goals in ten MLS matches.
With players scoring from all positions in Philadelphia's recent victory over DC United and Montreal desperate to kickstart their season, this traditionally high-scoring fixture (averaging 3.67 goals in recent meetings) could finally end the hosts' winless drought.
Montreal vs. Philadelphia Union form
Montreal vs. Philadelphia Union head to head
Montreal
50%
Philadelphia Union
50%
Jun 29, 2024
Montreal
4 : 2
Philadelphia Union
Jun 1, 2024
Philadelphia Union
2 : 2
Montreal
Jun 3, 2023
Philadelphia Union
3 : 0
Montreal
Mar 18, 2023
Montreal
3 : 2
Philadelphia Union
Apr 23, 2022
Philadelphia Union
1 : 1
Montreal
Mar 5, 2022
Montreal
1 : 2
Philadelphia Union
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