NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/03/2025

Game 7 at Ball Arena heavily favors the Nuggets, with home teams historically winning 110 of 151 Game 7s in NBA playoff history.

Nikola Jokic has been exceptional in Game 7 scenarios, averaging 26 points, 16.6 rebounds and 7.2 assists across five career Game 7s with a 3-2 record.

Jamal Murray elevates his game in elimination scenarios, scoring 35 and 40 points in his last two Game 7 appearances, suggesting another strong performance is likely.

The Nuggets have won nine of their last 10 Western Conference First Round home games, demonstrating their playoff reliability in this exact scenario.

Despite recent road success in Game 7s (road teams are 8-4 SU in the last 12), Denver's home court advantage combined with Jokic looking to avoid consecutive Game 7 eliminations as a higher seed makes the Nuggets the smart play.

Harden comes into Game 7 with strong momentum after dropping 28 points with 8 assists in the Clippers' crucial Game 6 victory.

The veteran guard has elevated his scoring when it matters most, becoming a primary offensive option alongside Kawhi Leonard in this series.

Game 7 situations require stars to take over, and with Harden's experience in six previous Game 7s, he understands the moment and necessity to be aggressive.

The Clippers have been relying heavily on Harden, who logged a massive 47 minutes in Game 6, indicating coach Tyronn Lue will keep him on the floor as much as possible in this elimination game.

While Harden has had playoff disappointments, specifically against Boston with Philadelphia, he's found new life with the Clippers and is averaging 20.7 points this series, making this a solid bet with potential value.

The Clippers have excellent momentum, winning 18 of their last 23 games dating back to March 12th, showing they're peaking at the right time.

Los Angeles holds a significant coaching advantage with Tyronn Lue (NBA championship winner with 97 playoff games experience) versus interim coach David Adelman for Denver.

The Clippers' superior depth is a major factor in Game 7, where bench production becomes crucial – the Nuggets rely almost exclusively on Russell Westbrook off the bench.

Los Angeles has demonstrated impressive road form recently, winning eight of their last 11 away games, suggesting they won't be intimidated by the Ball Arena atmosphere.

The underdog has covered the spread in 15 of the Nuggets' last 17 games at Ball Arena, a trend that strongly supports taking the points with the Clippers.