The Cleveland Cavaliers (64-18) enter their Eastern Conference Semifinals opener as heavy 7.5-point favorites against the Indiana Pacers (50-32), though Indiana's explosive offense and recent hot streak suggest this series could be more competitive than oddsmakers project.
With the Cavaliers coming off a dominant first-round sweep of Miami and the Pacers riding momentum after dispatching Milwaukee in five games, this matchup pits Cleveland's elite defense against Indiana's high-octane scoring attack that's been one of the NBA's best since January.
The potential absence of Darius Garland (questionable, toe) could impact Cleveland's rhythm, while the Pacers will lean on Tyrese Haliburton to continue his stellar playoff performance after his 26-point showing in the series clincher against the Bucks.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers matchup, our predictive model gives the Pacers a 57% chance of defeating the Cavs.
Indiana Pacers: 57% win probability
- Offensive firepower (9624 points scored this season, 4th highest in league)
- Exceptional recent form (WLWWW in last five games)
- Road resilience (50-32 overall record shows strong performance regardless of venue)
Cleveland Cavaliers: 43% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performance (LWLWL in last five games)
- Defensive vulnerability against explosive offenses (9217 points allowed this season)
- Home court advantage not translating to wins (Pacers have comparable 50-32 record to Cavs' 64-18 despite playing away)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers odds
Here are the latest odds for the NBA showdown between the Indiana Pacers and the home team Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday, May 04.
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Indiana Pacers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -325 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) | +285 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) |
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers preview
The Cavaliers enter the Eastern Conference Semifinals riding high after their dominant sweep of Miami, while Indiana arrives battle-tested after dispatching Milwaukee in five games.
Cleveland's home-court advantage at Rocket Arena could prove decisive, especially with the Cavs enjoying six days of rest compared to Indiana's quick turnaround.
Tyrese Haliburton has been the catalyst for Indiana's offense, coming off a stellar 26-point performance in their closeout game against the Bucks.
The Pacers have quietly won three of the last four meetings with Cleveland, suggesting this series might be closer than the 7.5-point spread indicates.
Cleveland's potential absence of Darius Garland (questionable with a toe injury) could impact their offensive flow, though Donovan Mitchell has been electric, averaging nearly 24 points in the first round.
With Indiana scoring at a blistering pace and Cleveland boasting the league's second-best field goal percentage, this opener promises plenty of fireworks between two Central Division rivals.
Key stats
- 1Cleveland Cavaliers sit 1st in the Eastern Conference with a 64-18 record, establishing them as the top team in the East
- 2Indiana Pacers hold the 4th spot in the Eastern Conference with a 50-32 record, making them a playoff contender
- 3The Cavaliers have stumbled lately with a mixed LWLWL form in their last five games, showing some inconsistency
- 4The Pacers are entering with momentum, riding a WLWWW record in their recent games, winning 4 of their last 5
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers form
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers head to head
Cleveland Cavaliers
40%
Indiana Pacers
60%
May 4, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
0 : 0
Indiana Pacers
Apr 13, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
118 : 126
Indiana Pacers
Apr 10, 2025
Indiana Pacers
114 : 112
Cleveland Cavaliers
Jan 15, 2025
Indiana Pacers
117 : 127
Cleveland Cavaliers
Jan 12, 2025
Cleveland Cavaliers
93 : 108
Indiana Pacers
Oct 10, 2024
Cleveland Cavaliers
117 : 129
Indiana Pacers
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