NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/04/2025

The Cavaliers have been an offensive powerhouse this postseason, posting a league-best 136.2 offensive rating through their first four playoff games. They've scored at least 120 points in each game, showing remarkable offensive consistency.

While the Pacers should offer more defensive resistance than Miami did in round one, they actually play at a faster pace, which benefits the over. Both teams finished in the top 10 in pace during the regular season, suggesting a high number of possessions.

Recent history supports this bet, with two regular-season meetings between these teams clearing the 229.5 mark. Star players Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell both exceeded their scoring averages against Indiana during the regular season.

Both teams have been shooting lights out from deep in the playoffs, ranking first and second in three-point percentage. The Cavaliers are allowing 16.8 second-chance points per game (third-most in the NBA), giving Indiana extra scoring opportunities.

This series opener features two explosive offenses that match up in a way that should produce a high-scoring affair. With Cleveland's elite offense and Indiana's ability to push the pace, the total should climb well into the 230s.

The Pacers enter this second-round matchup on a tear, having won 19 of their last 24 games and dispatching the Bucks in just five games. Their offense has been clicking at an elite level, averaging 117.8 points during the playoffs on nearly 50% shooting.

While Cleveland dominated Miami in a sweep, there's reason to believe this series will be tighter than the line suggests. The Pacers have won three of the last four meetings against the Cavaliers, showing they match up well against Cleveland's style.

Indiana's depth could be a significant factor, especially if Darius Garland (questionable with a toe injury) is limited or absent for Cleveland. The Pacers' balanced attack featuring Siakam, Haliburton, and Turner gives them multiple ways to attack the Cavaliers' defense.

The eight-point spread seems inflated given recent history between these teams. While Cleveland deserves to be favored at home, they might experience some rust after six days of rest, while the Pacers come in with sharper game rhythm.

The Pacers' impressive 39.3% three-point shooting in the playoffs gives them a puncher's chance in any game. Even if they don't pull off the outright upset, their offensive firepower should keep this game within the spread.

Game 7s are all about experience, and there's simply no team with more championship DNA than Golden State. Despite dropping two straight elimination games, the Warriors' core of Curry, Green, and Thompson has been through countless high-pressure situations.

The Rockets have made an effective defensive adjustment by blitzing Curry, creating a wall that's limited his playmaking. However, the Warriors now have had time to counter, likely by having Draymond Green or Jimmy Butler initiate more offense while Curry works off-ball.

Houston's inexperience could be their downfall. With an average age under 25, this young Rockets team hasn't faced the pressure of a Game 7 before. The moment might prove too big for players like Jalen Green, who struggled with just 12 points on 3-of-11 shooting in Game 6.

While the Rockets have momentum after winning two straight, closing out an experienced team like the Warriors is incredibly difficult. Golden State's championship pedigree gives them a mental edge in these do-or-die scenarios.

The value lies with Golden State at +120, as the market is overreacting to the Rockets' recent success. With adjustments from Steve Kerr and Curry likely finding ways to counter Houston's defensive scheme, expect the Warriors to show their championship mettle when it matters most.