The Golden State Warriors face elimination as they head to Houston for a decisive Game 7 against the Rockets, with the series momentum completely shifted after Houston stormed back from a 3-1 deficit to force this winner-take-all showdown.
Steph Curry's 24.5 PPG playoff average hasn't been enough to close out the series as the Rockets' balanced attack led by Alperen Sengun (20.8 PPG, 11.5 RPG) and Fred VanVleet's veteran leadership have tilted the scales in Houston's favor.
With the Minnesota Timberwolves awaiting in the next round, this clash represents a potential changing of the guard as the aging Warriors core battles against the youthful energy of the Rockets on their home court.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors matchup, our predictive model gives the Rockets a 68% chance of defeating the Warriors.
Pre-game probabilities
Houston Rockets
Moneyline
Win %
68%
32%
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets: 68% win probability
- Strong home-court advantage (52 wins on the season, 2nd in Western Conference)
- Positive momentum with recent form of LLLWW, winning their last two games
- Superior defensive efficiency (9002 goals against compared to Warriors' 9060)
Golden State Warriors: 32% win probability
- Inconsistent recent form (LWLWL) showing inability to string together consecutive wins
- Road struggles as indicated by their 7th place standing despite similar win total (48)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (9060 goals against, which ranks worse than Houston)
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model brings together insights from top NBA experts. Instead of searching through countless expert analyses online, you can rely on our predictions to capture the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing expert picks, data, and trends, while our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. These confidence levels are then averaged to generate an 'expert opinion' win probability—providing a data-driven reflection of the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NBA analysts..
| Houston Rockets | Golden State Warriors | |
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| Moneyline |
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Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors preview
The Warriors and Rockets head to a decisive Game 7 in Houston with Golden State's dynasty potentially on the brink after squandering a commanding 3-1 series lead.
Steph Curry has shouldered the offensive burden for the aging Warriors, averaging 24.5 points while making 4.2 threes per game, but fatigue could be a factor for the 37-year-old superstar and his veteran teammates.
Houston's resurgence has been fueled by Fred VanVleet finding his shooting touch—hitting six threes in Game 6 after a dismal start to the series—while Alperen Sengun continues to dominate inside with 20.8 points and 11.5 rebounds per game.
The series momentum has shifted dramatically with three consecutive overs hitting as defensive intensity wanes, setting up what should be a fast-paced elimination game at Toyota Center.
Golden State will need more production beyond Curry and Butler, as their other three starters combined for just 13 points in Game 6, while the Rockets hope for a consistency boost from Jalen Green, who's struggled in his first playoff appearance.
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors form
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors head to head
Houston Rockets
50%
Golden State Warriors
50%
May 3, 2025
Golden State Warriors
107 : 115
Houston Rockets
Apr 30, 2025
Houston Rockets
131 : 116
Golden State Warriors
Apr 29, 2025
Golden State Warriors
109 : 106
Houston Rockets
Apr 27, 2025
Golden State Warriors
104 : 93
Houston Rockets
Apr 24, 2025
Houston Rockets
109 : 94
Golden State Warriors
Apr 21, 2025
Houston Rockets
85 : 95
Golden State Warriors
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