NBA Best Bets Today: Expert NBA Betting Picks for 05/05/2025

The Celtics dominated the Knicks during the regular season, winning three of four meetings by double digits. Their only close game was a narrow overtime win for Boston back in April, and even that required exceptional circumstances to stay tight.

Boston enters this series well-rested after dispatching Orlando in five games, while the Knicks had to grind through a tough six-game battle with Detroit. The Celtics' defensive intensity has been remarkable, winning their four first-round games by an average of 16.5 points.

Home-court advantage looms large for the Celtics, who have won 20 of their last 21 games at TD Garden when playing with a rest advantage. The Knicks, meanwhile, have historically struggled in this matchup, losing all eight of their previous Eastern Conference Semifinals road games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Jayson Tatum (31.3 PPG, 11.3 RPG in the playoffs) and Jaylen Brown (23.0 PPG) present matchup problems the Knicks haven't solved all season. With Kristaps Porzingis healthy and Derrick White shooting lights out from beyond the arc, Boston's offense has too many weapons.

While Jalen Brunson has been exceptional for New York (31.5 PPG in the playoffs), the Celtics' defensive versatility and depth should contain the supporting cast. The full-strength Celtics are likely to come out aggressive in front of their home crowd and establish their dominance early in this series.

The Nuggets enter this second-round matchup as substantial underdogs despite being the defending champions. Denver just dispatched the Clippers in seven games, and while that series went the distance, Game 7 was a blowout that allowed Nikola Jokic to play just 32 minutes — his lowest total of the series.

The Thunder have been spectacular this season, posting a 57-26-4 ATS record, but they haven't played in over a week after sweeping Memphis. That extended layoff could disrupt their rhythm, while the Nuggets have maintained game sharpness throughout their first-round series.

Recent history favors Denver in this matchup, with the Nuggets winning two of their last three against Oklahoma City. Most telling was their March upset as 9.5-point underdogs — the exact spread we're seeing today.

The Nuggets have proven they can perform as heavy underdogs, winning outright in four of their last seven games when getting 5+ points. With Jokic playing at an MVP level and the Thunder potentially showing rust after their long break, Denver brings tremendous value.

The Thunder's stellar defense and home-court advantage still make them favorites, but the spread seems to show too much disrespect to the defending champions. The Nuggets' playoff experience and championship pedigree should keep this one competitive.

Playoff basketball typically tightens up as teams advance deeper into the postseason, and this second-round matchup between Denver and Oklahoma City sets up perfectly for an under play. The Thunder's defense has been suffocating, allowing just 100.5 points per game in their first-round sweep.

Denver's offense struggled at times against the Clippers' defense, averaging 107.7 points while shooting 48.2% from the field. Against the Thunder's more athletic defenders and rim protection from Chet Holmgren, those numbers could dip further in a hostile road environment.

The Thunder's three-point shooting regressed significantly in the first round (31.3%), well below their season average. That trend often continues as playoff pressure mounts, and Denver's perimeter defense held opponents to 36.4% from deep in their opening series.

Game 1 scenarios often feature feeling-out processes where teams play more conservatively. With the Thunder coming off an extended rest period and potentially starting sluggishly on offense, and Denver likely implementing a more deliberate pace to counter OKC's transition game, a lower-scoring affair seems likely.

While both teams have explosive offensive potential, the stakes of this second-round opener should produce a more tactical, defensive-minded approach. Look for possessions to be more valued and the total to stay under this number.