NHL Best Bets Today: Expert NHL Picks for 05/05/2025

Game 1 between the Panthers and Maple Leafs sets up as a defensive battle between two teams that excelled at keeping pucks out in the first round. Florida ranked second in goals-against average (2.20) while Toronto sits right behind them in third (2.33) during these playoffs.

We're looking at an elite goaltending matchup between Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz, former teammates who will be eager to outshine each other. Both netminders have been in stellar form, anchoring their teams' defensive structures.

The betting trend supports the under as well, with three of the four regular-season meetings between these teams staying under the total. In fact, seven of their last ten matchups overall have failed to clear this number.

The physical nature of playoff hockey, especially in series openers when teams are looking to establish a tone, often leads to tight-checking games. Expect plenty of hits, scrums after whistles, and limited odd-man rushes as neither team wants to make the first mistake.

While both clubs have shown offensive firepower (combining for 7.0 goals per game in the playoffs), their commitment to defense has been the foundation of their success. Neither coach will abandon their defensive blueprint in Game 1.

The Maple Leafs have transformed their identity under Craig Berube, developing the grit and physical edge they've lacked in previous playoff runs. This isn't the same Toronto team that's disappointed in years past – they're now equipped to handle Florida's bruising style.

Toronto's balanced scoring has been key to their first-round success. While the Core Four of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares remain dangerous, secondary scoring from Max Domi, Simon Benoit, and Max Pacioretty (who netted crucial game-winners) makes them much harder to defend.

Home ice advantage could prove significant in the series opener, with Toronto's crowd creating a hostile environment. The Panthers might experience a slight letdown after their emotional series victory against Tampa Bay.

Florida's road-heavy schedule could begin to take a toll, despite their impressive 3-0 record in Tampa during the first round. The Panthers may be caught slightly off guard by Toronto's new physical approach under Berube.

The value on the home team at plus money (+106) is too good to pass up given Toronto's improved playoff mentality and balanced attack. The Leafs' newfound depth beyond their stars gives them the edge in what should be a tight opener.

Opening periods of playoff series tend to be feeling-out processes, with teams prioritizing defensive structure and limiting mistakes. This should be especially true between two disciplined clubs like Florida and Toronto.

Both goaltenders – Bobrovsky for Florida and Stolarz for Toronto – are in excellent form coming off strong first-round performances. Expect them to be sharp from the opening faceoff, making early goals difficult to come by.

The coaching matchup between Paul Maurice and Craig Berube features two tacticians who emphasize defensive responsibility. Neither will want to open things up early and risk falling behind in a critical Game 1.

First period scoring has been limited in previous matchups between these Atlantic Division rivals. Their defensive awareness and familiarity with each other's systems lead to cautious starts before games potentially open up later.

The physicality expected in this series will be front and center in the first period, with both teams looking to establish their presence. This focus on heavy hits and board battles typically comes at the expense of high-danger scoring chances.