Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction, Odds & Game Preview 5/5/2025

The Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) enter Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals as heavy 9.5-point favorites against the Denver Nuggets (50-32), with advanced simulations giving OKC a commanding 76% win probability.

Despite coming off an impressive Game 7 victory over the Clippers, the defending champion Nuggets face a daunting challenge against the top-seeded Thunder, who just completed a dominant sweep of Memphis behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's stellar play.

All eyes will be on the contrasting styles at Paycom Center on Monday night, as Denver's league-leading assist offense attempts to crack Oklahoma City's suffocating defense, which ranks first in opponent field goal percentage and third in points allowed.

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets preview

The Thunder, boasting the NBA's best regular-season record at 68-14, welcome the defending champion Nuggets to Paycom Center on Monday for Game 1 of what promises to be a fascinating Western Conference Semifinal.

Denver comes in battle-tested after grinding out a seven-game first-round victory over the Clippers, while Oklahoma City looks fresh after sweeping Memphis.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters the series in devastating form, dropping 38 points in OKC's close-out game against the Grizzlies, leading a Thunder defense that ranked first in field goal percentage allowed during the regular season.

The Nuggets will counter with Aaron Gordon, who shined with 22 points in Game 7 against LA, but Denver faces a significant challenge as 9-point underdogs despite their championship pedigree.

The contrast in styles makes this matchup particularly intriguing - Oklahoma City's league-leading defense against Denver's elite passing attack that led the NBA in assists during the regular season.

With the Thunder's home crowd expecting nothing less than advancement and the Nuggets looking to prove their championship mettle once again, Monday's series opener has all the ingredients of a classic playoff showdown.

Key stats

1

Thunder claim Western Conference's top spot with a dominant 68-14 record—one of the NBA's best regular season marks

2

Denver finished 4th in the West at 50-32, sitting 18 games behind OKC in the standings

3

Oklahoma City enters with better momentum, posting a 4-1 record in their last five games compared to Denver's 3-2 stretch

4

Thunder boast the conference's best scoring differential (+1055), significantly outpacing Denver's +319 margin

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