The red-hot Edmonton Oilers ride a four-game winning streak into T-Mobile Arena on Tuesday night, where they'll face a Vegas Golden Knights squad that's won three straight of their own in this high-stakes Western Conference semifinal opener.
Both teams showed impressive resilience in their first-round series, with Edmonton rallying from a 2-0 deficit against Los Angeles while Vegas bounced back after dropping two of their first three against Minnesota.
With the Golden Knights holding a slight edge at home and boasting the league's third-best regular season defense, this matchup between two offensive powerhouses promises to deliver playoff intensity as Connor McDavid's Oilers look to steal home-ice advantage in Game 1.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Vegas Golden Knights vs Edmonton Oilers matchup, our predictive model gives the Knights a 68.33% chance of defeating the Oilers.
Pre-game probabilities
Vegas Golden Knights
Moneyline
Win %
68.33%
31.67%
Edmonton Oilers
Vegas Golden Knights: 68.33% win probability
- Superior point production (110 points in 82 games compared to Edmonton's 101)
- Better defensive record (219 goals against versus Edmonton's 236)
- Higher position in Western Conference standings (2nd place versus Edmonton's 6th place)
Edmonton Oilers: 31.67% win probability
- Inconsistent recent form (WLWWW indicating volatility in performance)
- Defensive vulnerability (236 goals conceded, 17 more than Vegas)
- Road game disadvantage against a higher-ranked Western Conference opponent
At Sporting Post, our unique prediction model combines insights from top NHL experts.
Instead of sifting through hundreds of expert analyses across the web, you can rely on our predictions to understand the market's overall sentiment. We scan trusted sources, analyzing predictions, data, and opinions, and our AI assigns a confidence level to each prediction. We then average these levels to produce an 'expert opinion' win probability—reflecting the collective intelligence of the industry's leading NHL experts.
| Vegas Golden Knights | Edmonton Oilers | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
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Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers preview
The Oilers storm into T-Mobile Arena riding high on a four-game winning streak after erasing a 2-0 series deficit against the Kings, while Vegas looks equally formidable having won three straight to dispatch Minnesota in six games.
Connor McDavid has been an offensive force with 11 points (2G, 9A) in the opening round, though Edmonton's defensive concerns remain evident with their playoff goals-against average sitting at a troubling 4.00.
Vegas will counter with Jack Eichel leading their balanced attack and rely on their regular-season defensive prowess that ranked third league-wide, allowing just 2.61 goals per game.
The season series ended deadlocked at 2-2, but the Golden Knights' home-ice advantage could prove pivotal as the Oilers have struggled on the road recently, managing just five goals in their last two away games.
Special teams could swing this series opener, with Vegas converting an impressive 28% of their power plays while Edmonton's penalty kill lands middle-of-the-pack at 16th in the league.
Both teams have shown impressive resilience already this postseason, setting the stage for what promises to be an electric Western Conference Semifinal opener at the Fortress.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers form
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers head to head
Vegas Golden Knights
50%
Edmonton Oilers
50%
Apr 2, 2025
Vegas Golden Knights
2 : 3
Edmonton Oilers
Dec 14, 2024
Edmonton Oilers
6 : 3
Vegas Golden Knights
Dec 4, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights
1 : 0
Edmonton Oilers
Nov 7, 2024
Edmonton Oilers
2 : 4
Vegas Golden Knights
Apr 11, 2024
Edmonton Oilers
5 : 1
Vegas Golden Knights
Feb 7, 2024
Vegas Golden Knights
3 : 1
Edmonton Oilers
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